June 23, 2025
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Derivatives Analysis by SAMCO Securities for 24 June 2025
by Dhuhpesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Despite early sell-off, Nifty ends resilient; swing resistance at 25.2K remains key hurdle
Nifty index showcased remarkable resilience in the face of heightened geopolitical tensions, staging a strong intraday rebound from lower levels and effectively cushioning the downside impact. Despite opening with a significant gap down, the index managed to recover impressively and demonstrated underlying buying strength. Notably, early selling pressure was absorbed well, with the index closing just below the psychological 25,000 mark—signalling prevailing bullish sentiment. The Nifty ended the session with a marginal decline of 140.50 points at 24,971.90.
However, the crucial resistance zone of 25,200–25,230 remains intact, and a decisive close above this level is essential for further upside traction. On the downside, the support band of 24,750–24,700 continues to play a pivotal role in preserving the bullish structure. Technically, the index remains well-supported by its short-term moving averages, 10-DEMA and 20-DEMA, which further validate the ongoing positive setup. Although the index is confined within a narrow trading range, a breakout above the consolidation zone is crucial for establishing a clear directional bias.
On the daily chart, an inside bar alongside a Doji candlestick has emerged, reflecting a balanced tussle between bulls and bears. Nevertheless, overhead supply pressure still persists. Encouragingly, the index continues to protect its critical support near 24,750–24,700, highlighting consistent buying interest at lower levels. A strong close above 25,250 would likely revive bullish momentum, potentially driving the index towards the 25,500 zone. On the flip side, any meaningful weakness will only surface if the index breaches 24,700—until then, pullbacks are expected to attract buying.
Derivatives Snapshot:
From a derivatives perspective, the sentiment skews toward cautious optimism. Put writers have aggressively built positions near current spot levels, indicating confidence in defending immediate supports. Concurrently, call writers have started shifting to higher strikes, hinting at an underlying bullish bias with scope for measured upside. The 25,000 strike remains the highest open interest zone on the call side with 1.11 crore contracts, thereby posing near-term resistance. Conversely, the 24,900 strike witnessed substantial put writing, with 84.62 lakh contracts, suggesting strong support around that level. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has inched up to 1.03 from 0.86, reflecting rising bullish sentiment and a growing tilt toward put writing. Max Pain stands at 24,800, indicating potential gravitational pull toward this level as expiry nears.
Volatility Check:
India VIX spiked during early trade amid geopolitical concerns but cooled off by the session’s close, ending 2.74% higher at 14.04. Importantly, it continues to trade below the key 15 mark, indicating that broader market volatility remains contained. The tapering VIX suggests waning fear and increasing investor confidence, typically a supportive signal for bullish continuation.
Market Outlook:
The index’s swift intraday recovery underscores its ability to absorb negative global cues and maintain a firm base near its support zone. This resilience suggests growing strength at lower levels and lays the groundwork for an upward breakout. A convincing move above the 25,200–25,230 zone could unlock the next directional move. Support from the 10-DEMA and 20-DEMA affirms the constructive price structure, while the RSI remaining above 50 reflects positive momentum favouring the bulls. With no significant bearish signals in sight and volatility remaining subdued, the broader trend continues to support a ‘buy on dips’ strategy. As long as Nifty sustains above 24,700, dips remain buying opportunities. A breakout above 25,250 could trigger short-covering and propel the index swiftly toward 25,400–25,500 in the upcoming sessions.
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