Derivatives Analysis by SAMCO Securities
by Dhuhpesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
🕗 Last Update: 29 January 2026, 8.00 AM
Nifty Defends 200-DMA, Base Near 25K Signals Gradual Trend Reversal
Market Recap
Nifty index staged a meaningful rebound from its critical support zone, successfully holding above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and gradually tilting the bias in favour of the bulls. A strong base has now taken shape in the 24,900–25,000 region, which coincides with the 200-DMA and continues to act as the bulls’ final line of defence.
The index ended the session higher by 76.15 points at 25,418.90, reinforcing the buy-on-dips approach.
The recovery was backed by a credible reversal setup and steady follow-through buying, underscoring the resilience of this support and raising the probability of further upside in the near term. From a structural standpoint, early signs of a trend reversal are becoming visible. The index has been consistently forming higher lows and has managed to close above its previous session’s high for the third consecutive trading day, reflecting persistent short-covering activity that could extend further.
A decisive breakout above the immediate resistance at 25,500 may accelerate short covering and attract fresh buying interest. However, sustaining above the 25,150–25,100 support band remains crucial to maintain durable bullish momentum. Thursday’s session carried a clear bullish undertone, with intraday declines witnessing sharp buying interest near the support zone. The evolving base and early reversal signals suggest that bulls are gradually regaining control.
Technical View
Technically, the index appears positioned for a healthier recovery, with the price structure hinting at a potential breakout from a double-bottom formation after establishing a firm base. The rebound from oversold territory lends further credibility to the ongoing recovery. A sustained move above 25,500 could add fresh momentum to the rally. Notably, the 25,500 zone—which earlier acted as a strong demand area—has now transformed into a key supply pocket, overlapping with the downward-sloping 20-day EMA. This convergence makes it a critical inflection level for the index.
Momentum indicators point toward easing selling pressure, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closing above 40, signalling a gradual waning of bearish dominance. A clean breakout above 25,500 may intensify buying interest, while any corrective dips toward the 25,200–25,100 zone are likely to be perceived as accumulation opportunities.
Derivatives Snapshot
Derivatives data continues to signal a cautious yet improving undertone. Call writers have aggressively added fresh positions at at-the-money and nearby strikes, effectively capping the immediate upside. On the other hand, put writers have begun building positions at lower strikes, indicating expectations of a range-bound setup with clearly defined support levels. A substantial open-interest build-up of around 54.67 lakh contracts at the 25,500 call strike highlights this level as a formidable resistance. Meanwhile, the addition of nearly 47.82 lakh put contracts at the 25,300 strike strengthens it as a key immediate support. The Put–Call Ratio (PCR) rose sharply to 0.97 from 0.82, signalling improving sentiment and a gradual waning of call writers’ dominance.
Market Outlook
Nifty index is exhibiting early signs of bullish acceleration, firmly sustaining above the 200-DMA and establishing a crucial base in the 24,900–25,000 zone. Importantly, despite the broader corrective phase, the index has managed to close above its previous session’s high for the third consecutive trading day, reflecting a revival in buying interest. A sustained follow-through above 25,500 could pave the way for a sharper short-covering rally.
On the downside, any declines toward the 25,200–25,100 zone are expected to attract strong buying interest and support accumulation. As long as these supports remain intact, the buy-on-dips strategy is likely to dominate. Traders are advised to remain selective, disciplined, and cautious while navigating the evolving market structure.
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