Daily Archives: February 19, 2026

Fractal Industries IPO (SME) — Listing Price Estimate

Business Snapshot
Fractal Industries operates in garment manufacturing and integrated e-commerce supply chain services, working with major online platforms like Myntra, Ajio and Flipkart. The company’s PPMP model and logistics integration support scalability, but working capital intensity remains a key factor.

GMP Trend vs Issue Price
The current Grey Market Premium stands at Rs. 0 against the upper price band of Rs. 216, indicating lack of speculative momentum ahead of listing. Flat GMP typically reflects cautious sentiment and limited listing gain expectations.

Market Undertone
The broader SME segment is witnessing a weak undertone amid volatile secondary markets and selective risk-off behaviour. Recent listings without strong GMP support have struggled to sustain premium valuations.

Subscription Trend
The IPO received moderate overall subscription of around 5.44x, with QIB participation relatively stronger than retail demand. While institutional interest provides some stability, retail enthusiasm appears measured rather than aggressive.

Expected Listing Price Range
Considering zero GMP, cautious market sentiment and balanced subscription levels, the stock is likely to list around Rs. 205 – Rs. 215, with a higher probability of a discount or flat listing near the issue price band. Short-term volatility may remain elevated post listing.

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Disclaimer

This IPO coverage is for informational and educational purposes only. Chanakya Ni Pothi does not recommend investments based on GMP data. Investors should read the RHP carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before investing.

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Manilam Industries IPO (SME) – Chanakya Review


IPO Details

Particulars Details
Face Value Rs. 10 per share
Issue Price Rs. 65 – Rs. 69
Lot Size 2,000 shares
Sale Type Fresh Capital & OFS
Total Issue Size 57,90,000 shares (Rs. 40.00 Cr approx.)
Market Maker Portion 2,92,000 shares (Rs. 2.00 Cr) – Nikunj Stock Brokers Ltd.
Net Offer to Public 54,98,000 shares (Rs. 38.00 Cr approx.)
Issue Type Book Building Issue
Listing At NSE SME
Shareholding Pre-Issue 1,71,50,000 shares
Shareholding Post-Issue 2,18,48,000 shares
Market Cap (Pre-IPO) Rs. 150.75 Cr

Reservation

Investor Category Shares Offered % of Issue
Market Maker 2,92,000 5.04%
QIB 27,42,000 47.36%
− Anchor Investors 16,38,000 28.29%
− QIB (Ex Anchor) 11,04,000 19.07%
NII (HNI) 8,28,000 14.30%
− bNII > Rs. 10L 5,52,000 9.53%
− sNII < Rs. 10L 2,76,000 4.77%
Retail Investors 19,28,000 33.30%
Total 57,90,000 100.00%

Application Details

Application Lots Shares Amount (Rs.)
Retail (Min / Max) 2 4,000 2,76,000
S-HNI (Min) 3 6,000 4,14,000
S-HNI (Max) 7 14,000 9,66,000
B-HNI (Min) 8 16,000 11,04,000

Company Financials (Rs. crore – Restated Consolidated)

Period Ended 30 Sep 2025 31 Mar 2025 31 Mar 2024 31 Mar 2023
Assets 159.99 158.98 149.56 133.55
Total Income 60.53 142.16 138.04 148.82
Profit After Tax 3.16 7.38 3.10 1.53
EBITDA 8.67 17.75 14.18 9.12
Net Worth 43.08 33.87 26.38 23.24
Reserves & Surplus 25.93 31.57 24.08 20.94
Total Borrowings 58.05 62.44 73.49 60.75

Important Business Crux

Manilam Industries operates in the decorative laminates and plywood segment, which is closely linked to real estate, interior design and infrastructure growth. The company manufactures laminates while trading plywood through a B2B distribution model. Its Bareilly-based manufacturing facility and experience centres across major cities support brand visibility and dealer engagement. Growth largely depends on housing demand, renovation trends and expansion of organised interior solutions in India.


Plus Points & Competitive Strength

• Presence in organised laminate segment with multiple product collections.
• B2B distribution model supports scalability with controlled retail exposure.
• Experience centres enhance branding and dealer network strength.
• Machinery upgrades and solar integration may improve operational efficiency.
• Increasing interior décor demand and housing activity support industry tailwinds.


Negative Points / Risk Factors

• Business is cyclical and dependent on construction and real estate demand.
• High borrowings compared to profitability levels remain a concern.
• PAT margins around 5% indicate limited pricing power.
• SME liquidity risk and post-listing volatility likely.
• P/E expansion post IPO suggests valuation becomes slightly stretched.
• Competition from established laminate brands and unorganised players.


Long Term Investment View

Manilam Industries offers exposure to the decorative laminates industry, which benefits from long-term housing and interior décor demand. However, moderate margins, leverage and cyclical exposure reduce conviction for aggressive long-term allocation. Investors should view it as a niche SME play rather than a structural compounding story.

Chanakya View (Long Term): NEUTRAL – selective participation only for moderate risk investors.


Listing Gain View – GMP Rs. 0 vs Offer Price Rs. 69

A GMP of around Rs. 0 suggests low listing interest but not strong speculative momentum. Considering SME liquidity risks and valuation near upper band, listing gains may remain limited or volatile.

Listing Gain Strategy: Apply selectively; avoid aggressive exposure purely for GMP.

CHANAKYA VERDICT BLOCK

IPO Verdict: NEUTRAL APPLY
Risk Meter: Medium–High Risk
Valuation Meter: Slightly Premium Post Issue
Listing Gain Outlook: Moderate
Long-Term Outlook: Cyclical Business, Selective Participation

Chanakya Insight:

The company operates in a competitive and cyclical laminate industry where growth visibility exists but margin expansion remains a challenge. Expansion initiatives and debt reduction plans may support future stability, but SME liquidity and valuation comfort should be carefully monitored.

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Disclaimer

This IPO coverage is for informational and educational purposes only. Chanakya Ni Pothi does not recommend investments based on GMP data. Investors should read the RHP carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before investing.

*RA No.

Gaudium IVF IPO – Chanakya Review


Business: IVF, ART & Women Healthcare Services
IPO Size: Rs. 156.65 Cr – Rs. 165.00 Cr


IPO Details at a Glance

Particulars Details
IPO Opening Date Friday, 20 Feb 2026
IPO Closing Date Tuesday, 24 Feb 2026
Listing Date (Tentative) Friday, 27 Feb 2026
Face Value Rs. 5 per share
Price Band Rs. 75 – Rs. 79
Lot Size 189 Shares
Issue Type Book Building IPO
Total Issue Size 2,08,86,200 Equity Shares
Total Issue Amount Rs. 156.65 crore – Rs. 165.00 crore
Fresh Issue 1,13,92,500 Equity Shares
Offer for Sale 94,93,700 Equity Shares
Listing At BSE, NSE

IPO Timetable (Tentative)

Event Date
IPO Opens Fri, Feb 20, 2026
IPO Closes Tue, Feb 24, 2026
Allotment Wed, Feb 25, 2026
Refunds Wed, Feb 25, 2026
Credit of Shares Thu, Feb 26, 2026
Listing Fri, Feb 27, 2026

Investor Reservation

Category Shares Offered
QIB Not more than 50.00% of Net Issue
NII Not less than 15.00% of Net Issue
Retail Not less than 35.00% of Net Issue

IPO Lot Size & Investment Amount

Category Lots Shares Amount (Rs.)
Retail (Min) 1 189 14,931
Retail (Max) 13 2,457 1,94,103
S-HNI (Min) 14 2,646 2,09,034
B-HNI (Min) 67 12,663 10,00,377

Financials (Rs. crore – Consolidated)

Particulars 30 Sep 2025 31 Mar 2025 31 Mar 2024 31 Mar 2023
Assets 106.62 88.51 51.01 36.63
Total Income 49.75 70.96 48.15 44.26
EBITDA 18.95 28.63 19.27 20.07
PAT 12.51 19.13 10.32 13.53
Net Worth 58.85 46.30 26.99 22.73
Reserves & Surplus 28.16 15.60 26.00 21.74
Total Borrowings 22.51 18.93 15.73 9.78

Important Business Crux

Gaudium IVF operates in the specialised assisted reproductive technology (ART) and fertility healthcare segment, a structurally expanding niche driven by lifestyle changes, delayed parenthood and rising infertility awareness. The company follows a hub-and-spoke clinic model, enabling asset-light expansion and scalable margins while leveraging centralised lab infrastructure. Increasing demand from urban India and medical tourism adds long-term growth visibility.


Plus Points & Competitive Strength

• High-margin specialised healthcare segment with strong demand visibility.
• Hub-and-spoke clinic expansion supports capital efficiency.
• EBITDA margins above 35% indicate premium positioning.
• Advanced IVF technologies and specialised clinical expertise.
• Growing fertility awareness and demographic tailwinds.
• Strong urban network with scope for expansion into Tier-2 cities.


Negative Points / Risk Factors

• Healthcare execution risk while scaling new centres.
• Increasing competition from fertility chains and hospitals.
• Revenue concentration around specialised doctors and urban markets.
• OFS component indicates partial promoter monetisation.
• Regulatory sensitivity in ART treatments.
• Valuation may appear stretched if growth slows.


Final Summary – Long Term Investment View

Gaudium IVF is positioned in a niche healthcare growth space with favourable demographic drivers and strong operating margins. The business model offers scalability, but execution consistency and competition remain key monitorables. Suitable for investors seeking exposure to specialised healthcare themes with a medium-to-long-term horizon rather than purely short-term listing momentum.

Chanakya View: Neutral to Positive – selective long-term participation may be considered.


Listing Gain View – GMP Rs. 10 vs Offer Price Rs. 70

A GMP near Rs. 10 indicates moderate positive sentiment but not aggressive premium expectations. Listing gains may remain steady rather than sharp unless subscription demand surprises positively.

Listing Gain Strategy: Apply selectively; avoid aggressive leverage purely for GMP.

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Disclaimer

This IPO coverage is for informational and educational purposes only. Chanakya Ni Pothi does not recommend investments based on GMP data. Investors should read the RHP carefully and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before investing.

*RA No.

Why Stock Market Is Falling Today?

Why Stock Market Is Falling Today?

Sensex Crashes 1,400 Points, Nifty Slips Below 25,400 — 5 Key Reasons Behind Market Selloff

Sharp Market Fall: Sensex and Nifty Under Pressure

Indian equity markets turned sharply lower during the intraday session, erasing early gains and slipping decisively into negative territory. The Sensex dropped more than 1,400 points, or over 1.7%, to trade near 82,300, while the Nifty declined over 400 points to hover around the 25,400 mark. Weak global cues, cautious institutional flows and rising volatility contributed to the broad-based selloff.


1️⃣ Weak Sentiment and FII Selling Pressure

Market sentiment remained fragile as foreign institutional investors showed signs of renewed caution after the earnings season. The inability of the Nifty to sustain above key psychological levels has added to investor nervousness, keeping traders on the defensive despite intermittent buying support.


2️⃣ Rising Global Geopolitical Risks

Investor confidence has been impacted by increasing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly reports of potential escalation involving the United States and Iran. Any developments affecting crude oil prices or currency markets tend to amplify risk aversion, leading to profit booking across global equities, including India.


3️⃣ Broad-Based Selloff Across Market Segments

The decline was not limited to frontline stocks. Mid-cap and small-cap indices also slipped, indicating widespread weakness across sectors. The fall resulted in a significant erosion of overall market capitalisation, reflecting cautious investor positioning amid uncertainty.


4️⃣ Valuation Concerns in Mid- and Small-Cap Stocks

Although mid- and small-cap stocks had recently shown signs of recovery following the third-quarter earnings season, elevated valuations continue to be a concern. Large-cap stocks still offer relatively better valuation comfort, making the current market environment more selective and stock-specific rather than broadly bullish.


5️⃣ Sectoral Weakness and Rising Volatility

Most sectoral indices traded lower, with notable declines in auto, FMCG, media and realty stocks. Financials, metals and consumer durables also remained under pressure. Adding to the cautious tone, the India VIX jumped sharply, signalling rising volatility expectations and heightened investor anxiety in the near term.


Market Outlook

The surge in volatility and continued global uncertainty suggest markets may remain choppy in the short term. Traders are likely to remain cautious until clearer direction emerges from global developments and institutional flow trends, while stock-specific opportunities may continue to dominate in the current environment.

 
 

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RBL Bank Technical Analysis Today – Paresh Gordhandas Power Call

Best Stocks to Buy Today in India – Paresh Gordhandas Power Calls

🕗Updated at 6:00 PM IST 18 February 2026

best stock to buy today

At Chanakya Ni Pothi, India’s oldest investment & IPO research weekly with a legacy of 33+ years, we bring you fresh “Power Calls” from Paresh Gordhandas — actionable stock recommendations before market opening.

RBL Bank Technical Analysis Today – Paresh Gordhandas Power Call

CMP Rs. 332.55


Technical Structure

RBL Bank is currently trading in a strong bullish trend across all timeframes, with short-, medium- and long-term trends firmly positive. The stock has witnessed sustained accumulation after a sharp upmove over the past few weeks, supported by consistent higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Price is trading decisively above all key moving averages — 20DMA (306.58), 34DMA (307.66), 50DMA (306.86), 89DMA (310.10) and 200DMA (275.69) — indicating robust positional strength and continued institutional participation. The sharp one-year return of over 100% reflects a structural trend reversal and ongoing momentum expansion phase.


Momentum & Indicator Analysis

Momentum indicators remain strongly bullish but are entering elevated zones, suggesting possible short-term cooling after the recent rally. RSI at 69.05 is near overbought territory, highlighting strong buying momentum but also signalling that the stock may witness consolidation at higher levels. Stochastics (%K 79.31) and StochRSI at 100 indicate stretched momentum conditions.

MACD remains firmly positive with MACD (5.38) above the signal line (2.21) and a rising histogram, confirming strengthening bullish momentum. ADX at 17.56 with strong +DMI dominance indicates an emerging trend environment where buyers continue to maintain control despite moderate trend strength. CCI at 194.92 reinforces the strong positive bias, while Williams %R at -14.92 suggests price is trading near the upper end of its recent range.


Volatility & Price Behaviour

The stock is currently trading slightly above the upper Bollinger Band (329.19), signalling a momentum expansion phase following a strong rally. Such positioning typically leads to either a breakout continuation or sideways consolidation before the next leg higher. Parabolic SAR at 299.85 remains well below the current price, confirming continuation of the uptrend. ATR at 8.99 suggests moderate volatility, implying controlled price movement despite strong gains.


Key Levels

Immediate Resistance: 339 – 346 zone (R1–R2 + Camarilla resistance cluster)
Major Resistance: 360 – 373 region (R3–R4 pivot band)

Immediate Support: 333 – 326 band (Pivot to S1 zone)
Strong Positional Support: 319 – 300 region (S2 + SAR cluster)


Trend Expectation

The technical structure remains bullish with price trading near momentum breakout territory. However, elevated RSI and stochastic readings suggest short-term consolidation or mild pullbacks toward the 326–333 zone before the next directional move. Sustaining above the pivot level of 333.30 will be crucial to maintain bullish continuation.


4–6 Week Positional Target (Power Calls View)

Primary Target Zone: 346 – 360
Extended Target (Momentum Continuation): 373+

View invalidation may occur only if price sustains below 299, which would weaken the current bullish structure and signal a shift toward consolidation.


Paresh Gordhandas Technical View

RBL Bank is showing strong momentum-driven price expansion supported by bullish moving average alignment and improving trend indicators. Positive MACD structure, strong DMI+ dominance and sustained volume participation suggest continued buying interest on dips. While short-term consolidation is likely due to elevated momentum readings, the broader bias remains constructive as long as the stock holds above the 326–333 support band.

 

Paresh Gordhandas Breakout Stocks

Vaishali Parekh‘s stock recommendations

Vaishali Parekh
Intraday Recommendations for 16 February 2026
 
1] South Indian Bank: Buy at Rs.41, Target Rs.44, Stop Loss Rs.39.
2] PNB Gilts: Buy at Rs.80, Target Rs.85, Stop Loss Rs.78;
3] ZEEL: Buy at Rs.94, Target Rs.105, Stop Loss Rs.90;

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👉 Chanakya Grey Market Intelligence – 8 PM Edition | News Crux | 

👉 Power Calls | Breakout Stocks | Coffee Can Portfolio

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*Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not ChanakyaNiPothi.com. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and individual circumstances may vary. Useful Links You Should Bookmark Now

Vaishali Parekh’s stock recommendations

What is the best stock to buy today in India?

Chanakya Ni Pothi recommends stocks based on technical and fundamental analysis. Visit the post daily for updated high-potential picks. For 8 January 2026, Chanakya has recommended – TBZ

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What are the top 3 stocks to buy right now in India?

Top 3 stocks to buy for 16 Febrayr 2026 are
PNB Gilts, ZEEL, and South Indian Bank.

What are the top 3 stocks to buy right now in India?

Top 3 stocks for 16 Febraury 2026- PNB Gilts, ZEEL, and South Indian Bank.

Which are Sumeet Bagadia breakout Stocks?

for 16 Febraury 2026, Sumeet Bagadia recommends – Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, IFCI, and South Indian Bank.

Who is Paresh Gordhandas?


Paresh Gordhandas is a distinguished Chartered Accountant and one of India’s most respected Research Analysts, with an illustrious career spanning over 35 years in equity and mutual fund research. Recognized as a pioneer in the field of investment analysis, he has guided generations of investors with his sharp insights and unbiased evaluations of the Indian capital markets.
He is a regular face on leading business news channels such as GS TV and others, where his expert opinions on stocks, IPOs, and mutual funds are highly valued. His analytical articles frequently feature in prominent investment publications and financial portals, reflecting his deep understanding of market dynamics.
Beyond research, Mr. Gordhandas is also a successful entrepreneur. He is the driving force behind several innovative ventures, including BigGaddi.com, India’s leading used commercial vehicle platform, and StaffAvailable.com, a reputed overseas recruitment portal. As a domain expert in mutual fund analysis, his views and recommendations are exclusively featured on Sahifund.com, one of India’s growing mutual fund research platforms.

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