Near term outlook remains weak… – Samco

Nifty Outlook: 23,000 Resistance Caps Recovery; Bank Nifty Turns Cautious

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty’s near-term outlook remains sideways below 23,000–23,050, with immediate support at 22,800. Bank Nifty remains sideways to weak below 56,000, with support at 55,300 and 55,000. Bearish candlestick patterns, weaker momentum and Call-heavy derivatives positioning suggest caution.

Nifty Technical Analysis: Bearish Engulfing Signals Selling Pressure

Nifty closed at 22,888.95, down 1.11%, forming a bearish engulfing candle and erasing approximately half the previous two sessions’ gains.

The index opened near 23,150 but failed to extend its advance beyond 23,175. It subsequently slipped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 22,940 and VWAP at 23,015, weakening the immediate recovery structure.

However, Nifty held above the 38.2% retracement at 22,800 and the middle Bollinger Band near 22,820. Together, these levels form an important support cluster.

RSI declined to 48 from 53, moving below the neutral 50 mark. Meanwhile, India VIX rose 4.76% to 14.69, indicating increased expectations of market volatility.

Nifty Options Positioning: Call Writers Hold the Advantage

Maximum Call open interest is concentrated at 23,000, followed by 23,200 and 23,300. Maximum Put open interest stands at 22,500, followed by 23,000 and 22,700.

At 22,900, Call open interest exceeds Put open interest, suggesting resistance immediately above the closing level. The Put-Call Ratio of 0.88 indicates Call-heavy positioning, although open interest alone cannot establish market direction.

What Are Nifty’s Support and Resistance Levels?

The near-term setup may remain sideways while Nifty trades below 23,000–23,050. Holding the 22,800–22,820 support cluster will be important for stabilisation.

Bank Nifty Technical Analysis: Evening Star Near Resistance

Bank Nifty closed at 55,488.10, down 0.64%, forming an evening star pattern near a significant resistance area.

The pattern developed below the Supertrend at 56,050 and swing high at 56,065, reinforcing this zone as a recovery hurdle.

The index slipped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 55,530 and VWAP at 55,633, moving towards the 38.2% retracement near 55,200.

RSI eased to 48 from 52, signalling weaker momentum. Private-sector banks led the decline: Nifty Private Bank fell 1.85%, while Nifty PSU Bank gained 2.46%. Private banks’ larger index weight limited the benefit of PSU-bank strength.

USD/INR ended at 94.92, with the rupee remaining firm.

Bank Nifty Options Positioning: Contest Around 55,500

Maximum Put open interest is at 55,000, followed by 55,500, while Call open interest is heaviest at 56,000.

Nearly equal Put and Call open interest at 55,500 indicates closely balanced positioning around the closing level. The PCR declined to 0.96 from 1.06, shifting the balance towards Calls.

What Are Bank Nifty’s Key Trading Levels?

Bank Nifty’s near-term outlook remains sideways to weak below 56,000. A recovery above 55,800 would improve the immediate structure, while sustained strength through 56,050–56,065 would provide stronger evidence of renewed buying.