Earnings driven triggers likely – Samco

Nifty Holds Above 24,000; Earnings-Driven Triggers Likely to Decide the Next Breakout

 Nifty ended the session largely unchanged, slipping 5.75 points (-0.02%) to close at 24,072.75, reflecting another range-bound trading session as market participants remained cautious ahead of a crucial earnings-packed period. Investors are awaiting Reliance Industries’ quarterly earnings, scheduled after market hours Friday (tomorrow), along with results from several heavyweight private sector banks over the weekend. Given their significant weightage in the index, these earnings are likely to play a decisive role in determining the market’s next directional move.

Technically, the index continues to hold above its 20-DEMA (24,039) while successfully defending the 24,000 psychological supports, indicating that bulls continue to protect lower levels despite repeated rejection from the 24,170-24,260 resistance zone. The price action suggests a healthy consolidation rather than a deterioration in trend, with the RSI easing to 52.15, reflecting neutral momentum after the recent consolidation phase.

On the Derivatives front, India VIX declined 2.92% to 12.88, indicating easing volatility and suggesting that market participants are refraining from building aggressive directional positions ahead of key earnings announcements. Option chain data shows maximum Put Open Interest at the 24,000 strikes, followed by 23,800, reinforcing a strong support base around the lower end of the current trading range. Meanwhile, maximum Call Open Interest is concentrated at the 24,200 strikes, followed by 25,000, highlighting a firm overhead supply zone that continues to cap immediate upside.

Overall, the technical and Derivatives setup continues to favour a range-trading approach. As long as Nifty remains within the 24,000-24,250-trading zone, stock-specific action is likely to dominate while the broader index awaits fresh triggers from the ongoing earnings season. A decisive breakout above 24,250-24,300 could pave the way for an advance towards 24,450-24,600, whereas a sustained breach below 24,000 may trigger profit booking, dragging the index towards the 23,800-23,750-support region. The outcome of the upcoming heavyweight earnings is expected to provide the catalyst for the index’s next meaningful move.

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Nifty Bank Holds Firm Above Key Support While Earnings Drive Market Expectations

Nifty Bank ended the session on a subdued note, declining 175.60 points (-0.30%) to close at 57,582.25, as traders remained cautious ahead of key corporate earnings. Despite the mild decline, the index continued to trade above its 20-DEMA, suggesting that the broader short-term trend remains constructive even as the market consolidates. The ongoing earnings season, particularly the quarterly results from heavyweight private sector banks, is expected to be the key catalyst in determining the index’s next directional move.

Technically, Nifty Bank continues to hold above its 20-DEMA while defending the 57,300-57,350-support zone, indicating that buying interest is emerging on every decline. However, the index has repeatedly failed to sustain above the 58,000-58,200-resistance band, reflecting persistent supply at higher levels and keeping price action confined within a narrow consolidation range. The RSI has eased to 53.44, indicating moderation in momentum while remaining above the neutral 50 mark, suggesting that the underlying bullish structure remains intact despite the ongoing consolidation.

On the Derivatives front, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.79, indicating a balanced positioning with a slight bearish bias in the near term, as traders continue to await fresh directional cues from the ongoing earnings season. Option chain data shows maximum Put Open Interest at the 57,000 strike, followed by 57,500, reinforcing a strong support base around the lower end of the current range. Meanwhile, maximum Call Open Interest is concentrated at the 58,000 strike, followed by 58,500, highlighting a significant overhead supply zone that is likely to cap immediate upside.

Overall, the Technical and Derivatives setup continues to favour a range-trading approach. As long as Nifty Bank remains within the 57,300-58,200 trading range, stock-specific action is likely to dominate while the broader index awaits fresh triggers from the ongoing earnings season. A decisive breakout above 58,200 could pave the way for an extension towards 58,700-59,000, whereas a breach below 57,300 may invite profit booking towards the 57,000-56,500-support zone. The outcome of upcoming banking heavyweights’  earnings is expected to provide the trigger for the index’s next meaningful move.