Chanakya Subscription Barometer

📊 Chanakya Subscription Barometer

(Investor Behaviour • Day-wise Signal • Listing Implication)

🧭 Chanakya Subscription Barometer – SME IPOs

(Demand Quality & Driver Analysis)

1️⃣ E to E SME IPO – Day-1

Issue Size: Rs. 80.00 Cr
Status: Live (Day-1)
GMP Trend: 134 → 136 → 136 → 146

Barometer Verdict:

👉 RII-Led with Strong NII Support (Early Phase)

Chanakya Reading:

• Demand is clearly retail-driven, supported by healthy HNI participation.

• QIB participation is selective and concentrated, typical of early days.

• Rising GMP reflects sentiment optimism, not yet institutional confirmation.

• True institutional intent will be revealed on Day-3, not Day-1.

2️⃣ Dhara Rail Projects SME IPO – Closed

Issue Size: Rs. 50.20 Cr
Status: Closed (Final Day Data)
GMP Trend: 22 → 24 → 24 → 24

Barometer Verdict:

👉 NII-Dominated with Full-Spectrum Participation

Chanakya Reading:

• Exceptionally high NII leverage, indicating aggressive HNI positioning.

• QIB participation is also strong, confirming institutional comfort.

• Retail participation is enthusiastic but not the primary driver.

• Flat GMP despite massive subscription suggests valuation already factored in.

3️⃣ Nanta Tech SME IPO – Closed

Issue Size: Rs. 30.00 Cr
Status: Closed
GMP Trend: 0 → 0 → 0 → 0

Barometer Verdict:

👉 QIB-Led, Low Retail Conviction

Chanakya Reading:

• Institutional interest is visible, but retail participation is weak.

• Absence of GMP indicates low secondary-market enthusiasm.

• Such structures often lead to muted listings despite QIB support.

4️⃣ Admach Systems SME IPO – Closed

Issue Size: Rs. 40.00 Cr
Status: Closed
GMP Trend: 0 → 0 → 0 → 0

Barometer Verdict:

👉 NII-Supported, Weak Institutional Interest

Chanakya Reading:

• Subscription is largely HNI-driven.

• QIB participation is minimal, signalling institutional hesitation.

• Absence of GMP reinforces limited listing traction expectations.

5️⃣ Bai Kakaji SME IPO – Closed

Issue Size: Rs. 100.00 Cr
Status: Closed
GMP Trend: 5 → 2 → 2 → 2

Barometer Verdict:

👉 Balanced Institutional–NII Participation

Chanakya Reading:

• QIB and NII participation is evenly matched.

• Retail response is moderate, not euphoric.

• Softening GMP indicates tempered expectations despite decent demand.

6️⃣ Apollo Techno SME IPO – Closed

Issue Size: Rs. 40.00 Cr
Status: Closed
GMP Trend: 12 → 12 → 12 → 12

Barometer Verdict:

👉 NII-Heavy with Broad-Based Support

Chanakya Reading:

• Strong NII dominance, supported by solid QIB and RII participation.

• GMP stability suggests orderly price discovery, not speculative excess.

• Such structures usually lead to controlled yet positive listings.

🧠 Chanakya Master Insight (Why This Barometer Matters)

• RII-led IPOs → Sentiment-driven, GMP sensitive

• NII-led IPOs → Leverage-driven, listing volatility higher

• QIB-led IPOs → Allocation confidence, but listing depends on GMP

• Balanced books → Most stable post-listing behaviour

Chanakya Take:

Headline oversubscription hides the real story.
The source of money matters more than the quantity of money.