Gold – bias remains cautiously bearish

🕗 Updated at 7.00 AM IST | 12 July 2026

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Today’s MCX Gold Target & Stop Loss

MCX Gold looks range-bound with a mildly bearish bias for Monday, July 13, 2026.

The highest-probability trade is to sell or buy a Put only below Rs. 143,000. The option chain indicates an implied MCX Gold value near Rs. 143,500–143,600, while international gold remains under pressure around $4,121 per ounce. Rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy tight. This is negative for non-yielding gold. However, geopolitical tension and central-bank buying may restrict the downside. The bearish setup will be invalidated if Gold sustains above Rs. 145,000. Below Rs. 143,000, traders can expect targets of Rs. 142,000 and Rs. 140,000.

Probability:

✅ 60% chance of trading between Rs. 142,000–145,000
✅ 25% chance of breakout above Rs. 145,000 towards Rs. 147,000–150,000
❌ 15% chance of a sharp fall below Rs. 142,000

Bullish Above: Rs. 145,000
Bearish Below: Rs. 143,000
Expected Range: Rs. 142,000–147,000
Best Trade Today: Buy MCX Gold 143000 PE below Rs. 143,000.

MCX Gold Levels Today: Support, Resistance, Option Chain & Trade Setup

International gold was trading near $4,121.10 per ounce, marginally lower by 0.07%, after ending the week with a loss of approximately 1.5%.

Gold came under pressure as the rise in crude-oil prices increased concerns that inflation could remain elevated. Markets are reportedly assigning a higher probability to a possible US Federal Reserve rate increase in September, creating a negative backdrop for gold because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting also reflected growing concern about inflation. Upcoming US inflation data and the testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will therefore be important triggers for precious metals.

At the same time, the downside may remain restricted by continuing US-Iran tensions, steady Chinese demand and central-bank accumulation. China’s central bank reportedly recorded its largest monthly increase in gold reserves in more than two and a half years during June.

The 29 July MCX option chain indicates an implied underlying Gold price close to Rs. 143,500–143,600. This estimate is derived from Call-Put premium parity around the active Rs. 140,000–150,000 strikes.

The broad option-chain Put-Call Ratio is approximately 0.72, indicating greater Call open interest than Put open interest. This suggests that upside expectations remain restrained, although the relatively low total open interest also means that individual strike signals should not be treated as absolute.

The immediate bias is therefore range-bound to mildly bearish below Rs. 145,000, with Rs. 143,000 acting as the downside trigger.

Key MCX Gold Levels Today

Level	Price
Support 1	Rs. 143,000
Support 2	Rs. 142,000
Implied Pivot Zone	Rs. 143,550
Resistance 1	Rs. 145,000
Resistance 2	Rs. 147,000

Chanakya View

👉 Below Rs. 143,000: Buy 143000 PE for underlying targets of Rs. 142,000–140,000.

👉 Below Rs. 140,000: Fresh selling may drag Gold towards Rs. 138,000–135,000.

👉 Above Rs. 145,000: Buy 145000 CE for targets of Rs. 147,000–150,000.

👉 Above Rs. 150,000: Call short covering may extend the rally towards Rs. 155,000.

👉 Between Rs. 143,000–145,000: Expect consolidation, volatility and option-premium erosion.

MCX Gold Option Chain Strategy Today – 29 July Expiry

Today’s Options Trade Setup

Instrument	Trade	Indicative Buy Zone	Target	Stop Loss
MCX Gold 143000 PE	Buy below Rs. 143,000	Rs. 2,400–2,550	Rs. 3,100 / 3,800	Rs. 1,850
MCX Gold 145000 CE	Buy above Rs. 145,000	Rs. 2,050–2,200	Rs. 2,850 / 3,600	Rs. 1,500
MCX Gold 140000 PE	Buy below Rs. 142,000	Rs. 1,450–1,600	Rs. 2,100 / 2,800	Rs. 1,000

Option entry prices are indicative. Enter only after the underlying-price trigger is confirmed because changes in international gold, USD/INR and implied volatility may alter premiums sharply.

Why This Trade?

• International Gold ended the week down approximately 1.5%, reflecting near-term selling pressure.
• Rising crude prices have increased inflation concerns and may delay monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
• Expectations of tighter monetary policy are generally negative for gold because the metal does not generate interest income.
• Gold remains exposed to next week’s US inflation data and the Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony.
• The MCX option chain indicates an implied Gold price near Rs. 143,500–143,600.
• The broad Put-Call Ratio of approximately 0.72 shows that Call OI exceeds Put OI.
• Call positioning is visible at Rs. 145,000, Rs. 150,000 and Rs. 155,000, creating layered overhead resistance.
• Rs. 145,000 is the immediate breakout level because it lies just above the implied underlying value and carries active Call positioning.
• Put positioning at Rs. 140,000 provides the nearest meaningful downside support.
• Rs. 135,000 and Rs. 130,000 also carry notable Put OI, forming deeper positional support zones.
• Geopolitical tension may trigger sudden safe-haven buying and makes aggressive short selling risky.
• Central-bank purchases, particularly by China, may limit prolonged downside.
• Unless Gold breaks Rs. 143,000 or Rs. 145,000, option buyers may suffer from time-value erosion.

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