Gold – maintains a mildly bullish undertone

MCX Gold Option Chain Analysis Today: Bullish Bias Above Rs. 1,55,000

Today’s MCX Gold at a Glance

Today’s MCX Gold Prediction

MCX Gold is likely to remain volatile but maintain a mildly bullish undertone. International gold is trading near $4,390, supported by central-bank purchases, safe-haven demand and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiations.

The immediate direction will depend heavily on US inflation data. A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and push gold towards the Q3 forecast of $4,446. However, higher-than-expected inflation may strengthen expectations of a September rate hike and trigger profit-booking.

In MCX Gold, Rs. 1,55,000 is the immediate breakout level, while Rs. 1,50,000 is the most important near-term support.

Market Probability

The overall put-call ratio is approximately 1.09, based on total put OI of around 4,038 lots against call OI of 3,718 lots. A PCR above 1 indicates a modestly positive undertone, but it is not sufficiently high to signal an unrestricted rally.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move above Rs. 1,55,000 can trigger fresh buying and short covering. Call OI at the Rs. 1,55,000 strike stands at 496 lots, with an addition of 61 lots. This makes Rs. 1,55,000 the first important hurdle.

If gold absorbs the supply at this strike, the next upside levels could be:

A softer US inflation reading, weakness in the dollar or deterioration in US-Iran negotiations could support this bullish scenario.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenario becomes active only if MCX Gold breaks and sustains below Rs. 1,50,000. This strike carries substantial activity on both sides, including call OI of 502 lots and put OI of 494 lots.

Put OI increased by 75 lots at Rs. 1,50,000, indicating fresh support creation. Therefore, a breakdown below this level would be important because it would suggest that put writers are losing confidence.

Below Rs. 1,50,000, gold may decline towards Rs. 1,48,000 and Rs. 1,45,000. The Rs. 1,45,000 strike has put OI of 602 lots, making it the next strong support base.

No Trade Zone

The immediate no-trade zone is Rs. 1,52,000–1,55,000.

Gold is presently around the middle of this zone, where sharp reactions to inflation data can create false breakouts. Fresh option buying inside this range may suffer from rapid premium erosion and volatility.

Traders should wait for a sustained move above Rs. 1,55,000 or below Rs. 1,50,000 before taking a strong directional position.

Key MCX Gold Levels

MCX Gold Option Strategy

Bullish trade: Buy the Rs. 1,55,000 Call Option only after MCX Gold sustains above Rs. 1,55,000. Keep the underlying stop-loss near Rs. 1,52,800, with targets of Rs. 1,57,000 and Rs. 1,60,000.

Bearish trade: Buy the Rs. 1,50,000 Put Option only after MCX Gold sustains below Rs. 1,50,000. Keep the underlying stop-loss near Rs. 1,52,000, with targets of Rs. 1,48,000 and Rs. 1,45,000.

Why This Trade?

The strategy waits for confirmation outside the high-activity Rs. 1,50,000–1,55,000 range. It avoids premature option buying before the inflation data and aligns the trade with visible option-chain support and resistance.

Final Verdict

MCX Gold retains a mildly bullish bias, supported by a PCR of approximately 1.09, central-bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty. However, strong call activity at Rs. 1,55,000 can restrict immediate gains.

Buy only above Rs. 1,55,000. Turn bearish only below Rs. 1,50,000.

Paresh Gordhandas View

MCX Gold is positioned at an important decision point. The option chain supports accumulation on declines, but the US inflation report can produce sharp two-way volatility. Traders should avoid anticipatory positions and act only after a confirmed breakout. Above Rs. 1,55,000, momentum can strengthen towards Rs. 1,60,000; below Rs. 1,50,000, defensive positioning becomes necessary.