MCX Crude Oil – Shortterm trend bullish

Crude Oil Trading Strategy Today: Investment Decision

MCX Crude Oil closed at Rs. 8,643, gaining 0.76%. The short-term and long-term trends are bullish, while the medium-term trend remains bearish. Crude Oil is trading above all major moving averages and slightly above the upper Bollinger Band, confirming strong momentum. However, extremely overbought oscillators and heavy Call positioning above the current price increase the risk of profit booking.

Today’s Crude Oil at a Glance

Today’s Crude Oil Prediction

Crude Oil may retain a positive bias while holding above the pivot of Rs. 8,628. However, Stochastics at 99.23, StochRSI at 100 and Williams %R at -3.29 indicate an extremely overbought condition.

The positive MACD histogram of 42.54, DMI Plus above DMI Minus and momentum reading of 1,387 confirm underlying strength. Nevertheless, traders should avoid chasing the price near resistance. Fresh buying is safer only after a sustained breakout above Rs. 8,805 or following a controlled decline towards support.

Market Probability

The weak ADX reading of 14.84 indicates that the recent sharp rise has not yet developed into a sufficiently strong directional trend. This raises the possibility of consolidation or sudden profit booking.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move above Rs. 8,805 can extend the rally towards Rs. 8,968 and Rs. 9,000. If Crude Oil crosses the significant Rs. 9,000 Call resistance with strong volume, the next targets are placed at Rs. 9,177 and Rs. 9,307.

Traders may buy above Rs. 8,810 after confirmation, with a stop-loss at Rs. 8,645. Partial profit should be booked near Rs. 8,965–9,000 because the option chain indicates heavy Call open interest at Rs. 9,000.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained fall below Rs. 8,465 can trigger profit booking towards Rs. 8,420 and Rs. 8,290. Below Rs. 8,290, weakness may extend towards Rs. 8,200 and the major Put base at Rs. 8,000.

Traders may sell below Rs. 8,460, with a stop-loss at Rs. 8,630 and initial targets of Rs. 8,420 and Rs. 8,290. Because the broader trend remains positive, bearish trades require strict risk control.

No Trade Zone

The primary no-trade zone is Rs. 8,465–8,805. Crude Oil could experience sharp two-way movement inside this zone due to overbought indicators, geopolitical sensitivity and concentrated option positions. Traders should wait for confirmation beyond either boundary.

Key Crude Oil Levels

Crude Oil Option Strategy

For the active expiry, bullish traders may use an Rs. 8,800–9,000 bull call spread after Crude Oil crosses Rs. 8,810. Buy the Rs. 8,800 Call and sell the Rs. 9,000 Call.

Below Rs. 8,460, traders may consider an Rs. 8,500–8,200 bear put spread. Defined-risk spreads are preferable because crude oil can react sharply to geopolitical news.

Why This Trade?

The option chain shows strong Put open interest at Rs. 8,000, Rs. 8,200, Rs. 8,500 and Rs. 8,600, creating layered support. Heavy Call open interest at Rs. 8,700, Rs. 9,000 and Rs. 9,500 may restrict immediate gains.

Final Verdict

MCX Crude Oil is bullish but overheated. Above Rs. 8,810, the rally may extend towards Rs. 9,000–9,177. Below Rs. 8,460, a correction towards Rs. 8,290–8,200 becomes possible.

Paresh Gordhandas View

Crude Oil retains strong momentum, but overbought readings make fresh buying risky at current levels. Trade only above Rs. 8,810 or below Rs. 8,460, prefer defined-risk option spreads and maintain strict stop-losses.