Today’s Crude Oil Target & Stop Loss

Today’s Bias

Crude Oil’s near-term bias remains bullish but extremely headline-sensitive as WTI trades above US$80 per barrel after advancing for a third consecutive session. The highest-probability trade is to buy MCX Crude Oil above 7,800 only after sustained confirmation, rather than chase a gap-up opening. The bullish setup is supported by renewed US-Iran tensions, supply disruption fears around the Strait of Hormuz and aggressive Call unwinding at lower strikes. The trade will be invalidated if MCX Crude falls below 7,600, where prices may slip towards 7,500–7,400. A confirmed breakout above 7,800 can push Crude Oil towards 7,900, 8,000 and 8,150. Since the 16 July options expire shortly, traders should expect rapid premium decay and sharp intraday swings.

Probability

✅ 60% chance of trading between 7,600–7,950
✅ 25% chance of breakout above 7,950 towards 8,050–8,200
❌ 15% chance of breakdown below 7,600 towards 7,500–7,400

Bullish Above: 7,800
Bearish Below: 7,600
Expected Range: 7,500–8,050

Best Trade Today: Buy Crude Oil 7800 CE above 7,800 with a strict stop loss.

Crude Oil Levels Today: Support, Resistance, Option Chain & Trade Setup

WTI Crude Oil climbed to around US$80.19 per barrel, gaining more than 1% and extending its rally for a third consecutive session. Prices remain supported by renewed tensions between the United States and Iran and concerns over possible disruptions to shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump warned of additional military action against Iran and indicated that power plants and bridges could become future targets unless Tehran returns to negotiations. These comments have increased the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil.

Although the proposed 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz has reportedly been dropped, traders remain focused on the possibility of renewed supply disruptions. Persian Gulf producers have increased exports following the interim peace agreement, but geopolitical uncertainty continues to outweigh the near-term supply increase.

The MCX option chain shows major activity between 7,500 and 8,000, with the highest near-market Call OI at 8,000 and significant Call additions at 7,600, 7,700 and 7,800. Strong Put writing is visible between 7,300 and 7,600, suggesting a rising support base.

However, with expiry on 16 July, option premiums can change rapidly. Traders should use the underlying MCX Crude Oil price as the primary trigger.

Key Crude Oil Levels Today

Chanakya View

👉 Above 7,800: Buy Crude Oil for targets of 7,900–8,000.

👉 Above 8,000: Momentum may extend towards 8,150–8,300.

👉 Below 7,600: Selling pressure may increase towards 7,500–7,400.

👉 Between 7,600–7,800: Expect consolidation, high volatility and rapid option premium erosion.

Crude Oil Option Chain Strategy Today – 16 July Expiry

Today’s Options Trade Setup

Important: The 16 July options are close to expiry. Trade only after checking the live MCX Crude Oil price, bid-ask spread, volume and premium behaviour.

Why This Trade?

• WTI Crude Oil has advanced for three consecutive sessions.
• Prices have crossed the psychologically important US$80 per barrel level.
• Renewed US-Iran tensions have increased fears of supply disruptions.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical risk point for global energy flows.
• The US threat of further military strikes has increased the geopolitical premium.
• Put writing between 7,300 and 7,600 indicates traders are building near-term support.
• Call OI is concentrated at 7,700, 7,800 and 8,000, identifying the immediate resistance zone.
• Large Call additions at 7,600–7,800 show that upside resistance remains active despite the bullish trend.
• The 8,000 Call carries the highest Call OI and acts as the major near-term ceiling.
• Expiry-day premium decay makes confirmation essential before buying options.