🕗 Updated at 10.30 PM IST | 6 July 2026
Today’s Crude Oil Target & Stop Loss
Crude Oil continues to trade with a mildly bearish bias after slipping below US$69 per barrel, weighed down by improving supply conditions. The highest-probability trade is to sell on rallies below Rs. 6,600, as OPEC+ has approved another production increase while tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize. The bearish view will be invalidated if Crude Oil sustains above Rs. 6,600, which could trigger short covering towards Rs. 6,800–7,000.
Probability:
✅ 65% chance of trading between Rs. 6,300 – Rs. 6,600
✅ 25% chance of breakout above Rs. 6,600
❌ 10% chance of decline below Rs. 6,300
Bullish Above: Rs. 6,600
Bearish Below: Rs. 6,300
Expected Range: Rs. 6,300 – Rs. 6,600
Best Trade Today: Buy MCX Crude Oil 6600 CE only above Rs. 6,600. Below Rs. 6,300, buy 6300 PE.
Crude Oil Levels Today: Support, Resistance, Option Chain & Trade Setup
Crude Oil remains under pressure as OPEC+ approved a further production increase of 188,000 barrels per day, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely normalized. Saudi Arabia has also reduced its official selling price for Asian buyers, signalling comfortable supply conditions. These developments are limiting upside despite steady global demand.
The MCX option chain also reflects a broadly range-bound to bearish outlook. Maximum Call Open Interest is concentrated at Rs. 6,600, making it the key resistance zone, while Rs. 6,300 has emerged as the strongest Put support, suggesting the market expects consolidation within this band unless fresh global triggers emerge.
Key Crude Oil Levels Today
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Support 1 | Rs. 6,300 |
| Support 2 | Rs. 6,000 |
| Pivot Zone | Rs. 6,450 |
| Resistance 1 | Rs. 6,600 |
| Resistance 2 | Rs. 6,800 |
Chanakya View
👉 Below Rs. 6,300: Selling may extend towards Rs. 6,100–6,000.
👉 Above Rs. 6,600: Fresh buying could trigger a rally towards Rs. 6,800–7,000.
👉 Between Rs. 6,300–6,600: Expect sideways movement with option premium erosion.
👉 Wait for a decisive breakout before taking aggressive directional positions.
Crude Oil Option Chain Strategy Today – 16 July Expiry
Today’s Options Trade Setup
| Instrument | Trade | Buy Zone | Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil 6600 CE | Buy Above Breakout | Rs. 135–150 | Rs. 200 / 260 | Rs. 105 |
| Crude Oil 6300 PE | Buy Below Support | Rs. 290–320 | Rs. 400 / 500 | Rs. 235 |
Why This Trade?
- Crude Oil has slipped below US$69 amid improving global supply.
- OPEC+ continues to gradually unwind production cuts by increasing output.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has normalized, easing geopolitical supply concerns.
- Saudi Arabia has reduced its August crude selling price to Asia, indicating softer pricing power.
- MCX option chain shows the largest Call Open Interest at Rs. 6,600, making it the primary resistance.
- Strong Put positioning around Rs. 6,300 indicates traders expect buyers to defend this support zone.
Start Your Trading Day with Chanakya Market Dashboard
Instead of visiting multiple market pages, begin your day with the Chanakya Market Dashboard, which brings together all key market insights in one place.
Related Market Insights
- 📊 Chanakya Market Dashboard
- 📈 Gift Nifty Live Analysis
- 📉 Nifty Levels Today
- 🏦 Bank Nifty Levels Today
- 🛢 Crude Oil Outlook
- 🥇 Gold Price Outlook
- 💵 USDINR Strategy
- 🏭 Reliance Levels Today
- 🏦 SBI Levels Today
- 🚀 PG’s Breakout Stocks Today
- ⚡ Nilesh Kotak’s Breakout Call
- ☕ Coffee Can Stock of the Week
Support and Resistance
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Immediate Support | Rs. 6,300 |
| Strong Support | Rs. 6,100–6,000 |
| Immediate Resistance | Rs. 6,600 |
| Strong Resistance | Rs. 6,800–7,000 |
Key Levels
| Level Type | Price |
|---|---|
| Pivot Zone | Rs. 6,450 |
| Downside Trigger | Rs. 6,300 |
| Upside Trigger | Rs. 6,600 |
| Major Resistance | Rs. 6,600 |
| Strong Support | Rs. 6,300 |
PCR Analysis Today
| Strike | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Rs. 6,300 | Strong Put support |
| Rs. 6,400 | Major OI battle zone |
| Rs. 6,500 | Neutral zone |
| Rs. 6,600 | Strong Call resistance |
| Rs. 7,000 | Heavy Call writing |
Bias: Bearish below Rs. 6,300. Recovery only after a sustained move above Rs. 6,600.
Max Pain & Execution Plan
Max Pain Today
| Metric | Level |
|---|---|
| Max Pain Zone | Rs. 6,400–6,500 |
Execution Plan
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| Below Rs. 6,300 | Buy 6300 PE |
| Above Rs. 6,600 | Buy 6600 CE |
| Between Rs. 6,300–6,600 | No Trade Zone |
| Above Rs. 6,800 | Trail long positions |
Technical View Today
| Indicator | Signal |
|---|---|
| Momentum | Mildly Bearish |
| Supply Outlook | Increasing |
| OPEC+ Policy | Bearish for prices |
| Option Chain | Range-bound |
| Resistance | Rs. 6,600 |
| Support | Rs. 6,300 |
Pro-Level Upgrade (What Big Players Do)
- Professional traders continue to sell rallies while prices remain below Rs. 6,600.
- Fresh long positions are generally initiated only after a convincing breakout above Rs. 6,600 with strong volume.
- Keep strict stop-losses as crude remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and inventory data.
- Book partial profits near Rs. 6,800 and trail remaining positions if momentum strengthens.
- Avoid aggressive trading inside the Rs. 6,300–6,600 range, where option writers currently have the upper hand.