MCX Crude Oil – Positive bias

Crude Oil Trading Strategy Today

Today’s MCX Crude Oil at a Glance

MCX crude oil was quoted at approximately Rs. 8,889, up Rs. 246 or 2.85%, at 9:29 PM IST on September 23, 2026. It opened at Rs. 8,586, touched Rs. 8,914 and fell as low as Rs. 8,496. Open interest rose 7.10% to 13,219 alongside the price gain, indicating fresh long positions in the quoted contract.

Today’s Prediction

The immediate bias is positive while crude holds above Rs. 8,800, but Rs. 8,914 remains the first test. A sustained move through the day’s high could bring Rs. 9,000 into focus. If price slips back below Rs. 8,800, the late-session advance may lose momentum.

Market Probability

The combination of rising price and rising open interest supports the bullish case. Even so, a 2.85% daily rise increases the chance of sharp intraday reversals. The supplied option-chain attachment shows a different spot and futures snapshot from the 9:29 PM quote. Its open-interest figures should therefore be treated as earlier positioning, not as confirmation of live support or resistance.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained break above Rs. 8,914 could encourage a move towards the round-number Rs. 9,000 level. Traders should look for price to hold above the breakout level after the initial move. Rising open interest alongside that follow-through would add weight to the signal; a quick retreat below Rs. 8,914 would weaken it.

Bearish Scenario

A fall below Rs. 8,800 would put Rs. 8,643, the previous close, back in focus. Below that, the opening level of Rs. 8,586 becomes the next reference point. A decisive move beneath Rs. 8,496, the session low, would overturn the day’s bullish price structure.

No Trade Zone

The area between Rs. 8,800 and Rs. 8,914 offers limited confirmation for a fresh directional trade after a large daily move. Waiting for a breakout or a clear reversal at support can reduce the risk of buying near the high or selling into a temporary dip.

Key Levels

The supplied pivot table contains values near Rs. 2,183–6,548, far from this contract’s quoted range. Those pivot levels are unusable for this trading plan.

Crude Oil Option Strategy

For October options, consider a bullish position only after the matching underlying futures contract confirms a move above Rs. 8,914. Consider a bearish position only after that contract breaks its corresponding support. Check the option’s exact expiry, underlying, premium and bid–ask spread before placing an order; do not transfer a strike signal from a different futures snapshot to the current quote.

Why This Trade?

The price and open-interest increase provides a reason to watch for bullish continuation. The day’s high and low provide clear points at which that view can be tested. MCX describes its crude-oil futures as linked to the NYMEX WTI benchmark, so global oil moves may also affect the next trading session.

Final Verdict

Positive, with confirmation required above Rs. 8,914. Hold above Rs. 8,800 to retain the near-term bullish view. Below Rs. 8,800, watch Rs. 8,643 and Rs. 8,586. Recheck live prices and the relevant contract before acting on any level.

Paresh Gordhandas View

“Rising open interest supports today’s crude-oil advance, but the day’s high is still the decision point. Trade a sustained move above Rs. 8,914 with defined risk; if Rs. 8,800 fails, reassess the bullish view.”