MCX Crude Oil – Recovery not confirmed

Crude Oil Trading Strategy Today: Bullish Above Rs. 7,965

International crude oil rose above $82.40 per barrel, gaining 1.42% during the latest session and more than 5% over the week. MCX Crude Oil closed at Rs. 7,870, while its long-term trend remained bullish despite short- and medium-term technical weakness.

Oil prices are being supported by uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, tighter sanctions on Iran and warnings of a widening global supply deficit. However, the sharp weekly rise increases the possibility of profit booking near resistance.

Today’s Crude Oil at a Glance

Parameter	Crude Oil View
International Price	$82.40 per barrel
MCX Last Close	Rs. 7,870
Pivot Point	Rs. 7,837
Immediate Support	Rs. 7,750
Strong Support	Rs. 7,630
Immediate Resistance	Rs. 7,965
Breakout Target	Rs. 8,043–8,249
Trading Bias	Cautiously bullish
No-Trade Zone	Rs. 7,750–7,965

What Is Today’s Crude Oil Price Prediction?

MCX Crude Oil may trade with a positive bias while holding above the pivot point of Rs. 7,837. A sustained move above Rs. 7,965 could trigger fresh momentum towards Rs. 8,043 and Rs. 8,249.

Conversely, a break below Rs. 7,750 could weaken the recovery and pull crude towards Rs. 7,630. A decisive fall below Rs. 7,630 would expose the stronger support near Rs. 7,425.

Crude Oil Market Probability

Scenario	Probability
Range-bound between Rs. 7,750–7,965	40%
Bullish breakout above Rs. 7,965	35%
Breakdown below Rs. 7,750	25%

These probabilities are based on the supplied technical indicators and geopolitical outlook. Since option-chain data is unavailable, no PCR, Max Pain or Open Interest confirmation has been included.

Bullish Scenario

Crude Oil has gained 6.01% over the past week and 3.36% during the latest month. MACD stands at 37.91, above its signal line of 33.30, while the positive histogram indicates improving momentum.

RSI at 52.55 is above the neutral level without being overbought. +DMI at 25.75 is also marginally higher than -DMI at 23.08, giving buyers a slight advantage.

A breakout above Rs. 7,965 could push crude towards Rs. 8,043. Sustained trading above Rs. 8,050 may extend the rally towards Rs. 8,249 and Rs. 8,455.

Bearish Scenario

Despite the weekly recovery, the short- and medium-term trends remain bearish. Crude is trading below its 20-day SMA of Rs. 7,906.85, while the Parabolic SAR at Rs. 8,049 remains above the current price.

ADX at 17.45 indicates weak trend strength. Therefore, the recovery has not yet developed into a powerful uptrend.

A break below Rs. 7,750 could trigger targets of Rs. 7,630 and Rs. 7,425. Traders should avoid aggressive buying if crude closes below Rs. 7,630.

Crude Oil No-Trade Zone

The Rs. 7,750–7,965 range should be treated as the no-trade zone. Directional positions taken inside this region may face repeated reversals due to weak ADX and geopolitical headlines.

Key MCX Crude Oil Levels

Trading Signal	Level
Bullish Above	Rs. 7,965
Upside Targets	Rs. 8,043/Rs. 8,249
Extended Target	Rs. 8,455
Bearish Below	Rs. 7,750
Downside Targets	Rs. 7,630/Rs. 7,425

Crude Oil Trading Strategy

Above Rs. 7,965, traders may initiate bullish positions with an underlying stop-loss at Rs. 7,835 and targets of Rs. 8,043–8,249.

Below Rs. 7,750, bearish positions may be considered with a stop-loss above Rs. 7,840 and targets of Rs. 7,630–7,425. Option traders should select an at-the-money strike only after price confirmation because option-chain data is unavailable.

Why This Trade?

Geopolitical supply risks, possible disruption through Hormuz and the IEA’s deficit warning support crude prices. However, weak ADX and resistance near Rs. 8,000 demand confirmation before buying.

Final Verdict

MCX Crude Oil remains cautiously bullish above Rs. 7,750. A breakout above Rs. 7,965 can target Rs. 8,043–8,249, while a breakdown below Rs. 7,750 may revive selling pressure.

Paresh Gordhandas View

Crude Oil is supported by geopolitical risk and improving momentum, but the recovery is not fully confirmed. Trade only outside Rs. 7,750–7,965. Above Rs. 7,965, favour buying; below Rs. 7,750, shift to a defensive bearish strategy.