Gold – maintains a positive bias

Today’s MCX Gold at a Glance

Parameter	Gold Trading View
Last Close	Rs. 1,54,506
Pivot Point	Rs. 1,53,793
Immediate Support	Rs. 1,52,600
Strong Support	Rs. 1,50,700–1,51,900
Immediate Resistance	Rs. 1,55,000–1,55,660
Breakout Target	Rs. 1,56,820
Trading Bias	Bullish on declines
No-Trade Zone	Rs. 1,53,500–1,55,000

What Is Today’s MCX Gold Price Prediction?

Gold is expected to retain a positive bias while trading above its pivot level of Rs. 1,53,793. Sustained trading above Rs. 1,55,000 could push prices towards Rs. 1,55,660 and Rs. 1,56,820.

A decisive breakout above Rs. 1,56,820 could extend the rally towards Rs. 1,58,700–1,59,850. Conversely, weakness below Rs. 1,52,600 could trigger a correction towards Rs. 1,51,900 and Rs. 1,50,766.

Gold Market Probability

Scenario	Probability
Bullish move above Rs. 1,55,000	40%
Range-bound movement	40%
Breakdown below Rs. 1,52,600	20%

The probabilities are based on the supplied price structure, momentum indicators and option-chain positioning. They should be reviewed after observing changes in volume and Open Interest.

Bullish Scenario

Gold is trading above its 20-, 34-, 50-, 89- and 200-day exponential moving averages. MACD stands at 2,462.99, substantially above its signal line of 1,050.37, while the positive histogram confirms strong upward momentum.

ADX at 28.66 indicates an established trend, with +DMI at 36.31 above -DMI at 20.09. RSI at 67.56 remains bullish, although it is approaching the overbought zone.

A move above Rs. 1,55,000 would be the first bullish trigger. Sustained trading above Rs. 1,55,660 could open the way towards Rs. 1,56,820 and Rs. 1,59,850.

Bearish Scenario

Gold may witness profit booking because RSI is elevated and the price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at Rs. 1,56,487. Stochastic momentum has also moderated, with %K below %D.

A break below Rs. 1,53,500 would weaken intraday momentum. However, a confirmed bearish move would emerge only below Rs. 1,52,600. Downside targets would then be Rs. 1,51,900, Rs. 1,50,766 and Rs. 1,49,900.

Gold No-Trade Zone

The Rs. 1,53,500–1,55,000 region should be treated as the no-trade zone. Fresh option buying inside this range may suffer from premium erosion and repeated reversals.

Directional positions should preferably be taken only after Gold sustains above Rs. 1,55,000 or below Rs. 1,52,600.

Key MCX Gold Levels

Trading Signal	Level
Bullish Above	Rs. 1,55,000
Upside Targets	Rs. 1,55,660/Rs. 1,56,820
Extended Target	Rs. 1,59,850
Bearish Below	Rs. 1,52,600
Downside Targets	Rs. 1,51,900/Rs. 1,50,766

MCX Gold Option Strategy

Above Rs. 1,55,000, traders may consider the 1,55,000 Call, using Rs. 1,53,800 in Gold as the underlying stop-loss. Targets are Rs. 1,55,660 and Rs. 1,56,820.

Below Rs. 1,52,600, traders may consider the 1,53,000 Put, with an underlying stop-loss above Rs. 1,54,000 and targets of Rs. 1,51,900–1,50,766.

Why This Trade?

Gold has a positive MACD, strong DMI structure and bullish moving-average alignment. The option chain also shows notable Put OI at Rs. 1,50,000 and Rs. 1,55,000, while Call OI is concentrated at higher strikes, including Rs. 1,60,000 and Rs. 1,65,000.

Final Verdict

MCX Gold remains bullish above Rs. 1,52,600. Buy only after a breakout above Rs. 1,55,000 or on controlled declines near support. Avoid aggressive option buying inside the no-trade zone.

Paresh Gordhandas View

Gold retains a positive technical structure, but RSI near 68 demands disciplined entries. Above Rs. 1,55,000, momentum can extend towards Rs. 1,56,820 and Rs. 1,59,850. Below Rs. 1,52,600, traders should protect profits and prepare for a deeper correction.

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