Gold – a mildly bearish to range-bound bias

🕗 Updated at 10.30 pM IST | 6 July 2026

Today’s Gold Target & Stop Loss

Gold is showing a mildly bearish to range-bound bias after retreating from recent highs as a stronger US dollar triggered profit booking. However, downside remains limited because weaker US labour market data has strengthened expectations of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, which continues to support bullion. The highest-probability trade is to sell on rallies below Rs. 145,000, while aggressive buying should only be considered after a decisive breakout above this resistance. The bearish view will be invalidated if Gold sustains above Rs. 145,000, which could trigger fresh momentum towards Rs. 147,000–150,000.

Probability:

✅ 60% chance of trading between Rs. 140,000 – Rs. 145,000

✅ 25% chance of breakout above Rs. 145,000

❌ 15% chance of decline below Rs. 140,000

Bullish Above: Rs. 145,000

Bearish Below: Rs. 140,000

Expected Range: Rs. 140,000 – Rs. 145,000

Best Trade Today: Buy MCX Gold 145000 CE only above Rs. 145,000 breakout. Sell on rallies while below Rs. 145,000.

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Gold Levels Today: Support, Resistance, Option Chain & Trade Setup

Gold eased towards US$4,140 per ounce after touching a two-week high as the US dollar strengthened. However, weaker US employment data continues to keep hopes of future Federal Reserve easing alive, preventing any major downside. Investors are now awaiting the Fed meeting minutes for fresh direction.

MCX Gold option positioning continues to indicate that Rs. 145,000 remains the biggest resistance zone, while strong Put Open Interest around Rs. 140,000 provides immediate support. Option writers continue to expect consolidation unless Gold decisively crosses either side. Option-chain data supports this view.

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Key Gold Levels Today

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Chanakya View

👉 Below Rs. 140,000: Selling may extend towards Rs. 138,000–135,000.

👉 Above Rs. 145,000: Fresh buying can push Gold towards Rs. 147,000–150,000.

👉 Between Rs. 140,000–145,000: Expect consolidation and option premium erosion.

👉 Wait for confirmation before initiating aggressive directional trades.

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MCX Gold Option Chain Strategy Today – 29 July Expiry

Today’s Options Trade Setup

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Why This Trade?

• Spot Gold has corrected from recent highs as the US dollar strengthened.
• Weak US payroll data has reduced expectations of aggressive Fed tightening, limiting downside.
• Markets are closely watching the upcoming Fed minutes for fresh policy clues.
• JPMorgan expects Gold’s upside to remain capped near US$4,300 during Q3 despite supportive macro trends.
• MCX option chain shows maximum Call Open Interest at Rs. 155,000 (1,012 lots), indicating strong overhead resistance.
• Significant Put positioning around Rs. 140,000 suggests traders continue to defend lower levels.

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