Chanakya Currency Radar – 12 March

Last Update: 11 March 2026, 8.00 PM (Chanakya Currency Desk View) for 12 March 2026

USDINR is trading around 92.15, maintaining a strong upward trend after a steady rally over the last few weeks. The pair has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

The recent candles show consolidation just below a key resistance zone, suggesting that the market is preparing for the next directional move.

Technical Indicators

RSI (14): ~65.9

RSI is in bullish territory but still below the extreme overbought zone.
Indicates healthy momentum with scope for further upside.

Stochastic RSI: ~80

Entering the overbought region, which signals short-term exhaustion.
A brief consolidation or mild pullback cannot be ruled out before the next rally.

Key Levels

Level Type	Price
Immediate Resistance	92.30
Major Resistance	92.50
Immediate Support	91.70
Strong Support	91.20

Price Structure Insight

The chart shows a bullish flag-type consolidation after a strong rally. This pattern usually results in a continuation move once resistance is cleared.

If USDINR sustains above 92.30, the pair could quickly test 92.50 – 92.80 levels.

However, failure to cross resistance may trigger a temporary pullback toward 91.70–91.50, which is likely to attract fresh buying.

Trading Outlook for 12 March 2026

Scenario	View
Above 92.30	Bullish breakout toward 92.50 – 92.80
91.70 – 92.30	Sideways consolidation
Below 91.70	Short-term correction toward 91.20

Fundamental Triggers to Watch

Crude oil volatility (important for INR direction)
US bond yields and Fed policy expectations
FII flows into Indian equities
Global geopolitical tensions affecting safe-haven demand for USD

Chanakya Currency View

Bias: Mildly Bullish

USDINR remains structurally bullish and traders should watch the 92.30 breakout level carefully. A sustained move above this zone may trigger a fresh upward leg toward 92.50+, while dips near 91.70 may attract buyers.

Currency Analysis by Mr. Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

The Indian rupee has depreciated against the US dollar, even as regional currencies show a mixed performance. Over the past two weeks, intensified geopolitical tensions in West Asia have triggered risk-averse sentiment and pushed crude oil prices higher—both of which have weighed heavily on the rupee. Tight dollar liquidity has further exacerbated the decline, driven by capital outflows from domestic equity and debt markets. While the central bank’s dollar supplies have helped limit losses, firm demand from importers continues to drag the currency lower.

In the near term, spot USDINR finds immediate support at 91.60, with key resistance seen at 92.40.

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Forex daily analysis & Prediction

Which currency will be stronger in 2023? moneycontrol

The United Nations officially recognises 180 currencies worldwide as legal tender. However, popularity and wide usage do not necessarily equate to the value or strength commanded by a currency. The concept of currency strength revolves around the purchasing power of a nation’s currency when exchanged for goods, services, or other currencies.
Currency strength is determined by evaluating the number of goods and services which can be purchased with one unit of the national currency and the amount of foreign currency obtained in exchange. A comprehensive analysis of various local and international factors is necessary to ascertain whether a currency holds the title of the most valuable or expensive in the world. These factors include supply and demand dynamics in the foreign exchange markets, inflation rates, domestic economic growth, the policies implemented by the relevant central bank, and the country’s overall economic stability.

10.United States Dollar (USD)

The currency of the United States of America is USD, or the US Dollar. It is the most widely traded currency globally and holds the position as the primary reserve currency. Despite its popularity, it ranks 10th among the world’s strongest currencies.
Also Read: 1 USD to INR: From 1947 to 2023

9: Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) is the official currency of the Eurozone, comprising 19 member states of the European Union. It is the second-largest reserve currency and the second-most traded currency worldwide. The euro stands as one of the strongest currencies, holding the 9th position.
Also Read: Top 10 largest economies in the world in 2023
8: Swiss Franc (CHF)
The Swiss Franc (CHF) serves as the currency of Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Known for the stability of its economy, Switzerland is among the world’s wealthiest countries.

7: Cayman Islands Dollar (KYD)

The official currency of the Cayman Islands is the Cayman Islands Dollar (KYD). Although it ranks 7th among the strongest currencies, its value is the 5th highest globally. Initially using the Jamaican Dollar, the Cayman Islands adopted their own currency in 1972.
Also Read: Top 10 richest countries in the world by GDP per capita in 2023
6: Gibraltar Pound (GIP)
The Gibraltar Pound (GIP) is the currency of Gibraltar, pegged at par value to the British pound sterling (GBP). As a British overseas territory, Gibraltar depends on sectors like tourism and e-gaming. The GIP holds the 6th position among the strongest currencies.
5: British Pound (GBP)
Great Britain uses the British Pound (GBP), which is also pretty broadly used in other countries and territories. As the world’s 5th strongest currency, it holds a significant place in global finance. London’s status as a financial hub and Britain’s extensive trade activities contribute to the strength of the pound.
Also Read: World’s most powerful passport rankings 2023
4: Jordanian Dinar (JOD)
The Jordanian Dinar (JOD) has served as the currency of Jordan since it replaced the Palestinian pound in 1950. Jordan’s fixed exchange rates and diversified economy have contributed to the high value of its currency, ranking it as the 4th strongest globally.

3: Omani Rial (OMR)

The Omani Rial (OMR) is the currency of Oman and was introduced after the country ceased using the Indian Rupee as its official currency. As a country with significant oil reserves, Oman’s economy heavily relies on the oil sector. The Omani Rial, which is tied to the US dollar, is the third most valuable currency in the world.
2: Bahraini Dinar (BHD)
The Bahraini Dinar (BHD) serves as the currency of Bahrain, an island nation in the Arabian Gulf heavily reliant on oil exports. The BHD is pegged to the US Dollar and is exclusively used in Bahrain. With a strong expat community, including a significant number of Indians, the BHD holds the position as the second strongest currency globally.
Also Read: Top 10 powerful countries in the world in 2023
1: Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD)
The highest-valued currency in the world is the Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD). Since it was first introduced in 1960, the Kuwaiti dinar has consistently ranked as the world’s most valuable currency. Kuwait’s economic stability, driven by its oil reserves and tax-free system, contributes to the high demand for its currency. Among Indian expats, the INR to KWD exchange rate is particularly popular.

How do you predict currency trends? moneycontrol

3 Common Ways to Forecast Currency Exchange Rates
Purchasing Power Parity.
Relative Economic Strength.
Econometric Models of Forecasting Exchange Rates.

Which currency is doing the best right now?

The highest-valued currency in the world is the Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD). Since it was first introduced in 1960, the Kuwaiti dinar has consistently ranked as the world’s most valuable currency.

Can Indian currency get stronger? moneycontrol
6 reasons why many analysts expect Indian rupee could head towards 75/USD
Higher the reserves, the more stable the currency. Conclusion: Other factors like unemployment, equity market strength, volatility in crude oil prices, and money supply affect exchange rates. Nonetheless, the INR has several factors aligned in its favor, and as a result, many analysts forecast the INR to strengthen by 2025.

How to anticipate currency trends in today’s market?

Great question—anticipating currency trends today is part art, part science. With global markets moving fast and geopolitics constantly shifting, it’s all about combining fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and real-time news.

Here’s a structured approach to stay ahead:

How to Anticipate Currency Trends (2024–2025 Style)

1. Master the Macro Fundamentals

Currencies are driven by economic health and policy.

Key indicators to track:

Interest rates: Central bank policies (Fed, ECB, BoJ, etc.) drive currency flows.
Inflation data (CPI, PPI): Higher inflation = higher chances of rate hikes.
GDP growth: Stronger economies attract foreign capital = stronger currency.
Unemployment rates: Labor market strength = economic stability = currency strength.
Trade balances: Countries with trade surpluses (exports > imports) often see stronger currencies.
Example: If the US shows strong GDP and the Fed is hawkish, expect USD strength.

Technical Analysis (TA) Still Works

Use support/resistance, trendlines, moving averages (especially 50/200 DMA), and Fibonacci levels.
Momentum indicators like RSI, MACD help spot overbought/oversold zones.
Patterns: Head and shoulders, double tops, flags, etc., are often reliable in major FX pairs.

Tip: Overlay fundamentals with charts—when both align, it’s often a high-conviction trade.

Real-Time Sentiment & News

Follow central bank speeches, geopolitical events (e.g., Middle East, China-US tensions), elections, etc.
Tools to use:
- Forex Factory
- Bloomberg FX
- Twitter/X traders
- TradingView’s news plugins
Track COT Reports (Commitments of Traders) to see big money positioning.

Example: Dovish Fed talk = weaker USD, even if data is strong. Sentiment > Data short term.

Correlations Matter

Commodity currencies: AUD, NZD, CAD often move with oil, gold, and global risk sentiment.
Safe-haven flows: JPY and CHF strengthen during risk-off periods.
EM currencies (like INR, BRL, ZAR) are sensitive to USD moves and global liquidity.

Pro tip: Track DXY (Dollar Index) — it’s a basket-based view of USD and often sets the tone.

Watch Global Liquidity & Risk Appetite

VIX (Volatility Index): High VIX = risk-off = USD, JPY up.
US Bond Yields: Higher yields = stronger USD.
Fed Balance Sheet & QT/Tapering: Impacts USD liquidity, hence currency trends.

Bonus: Tools to Keep You Sharp

Tool	Use
TradingView	Charts + sentiment
Forex Factory	Economic calendar
Investing.com	News + technicals
Myfxbook	Sentiment
Twitter/X	Real-time rumors & macro threads

How to analyze currency?

To read a currency chart, focus on the currency pair (e.g., USD/INR), where the first currency is the base and the second is the quote. The chart shows how much of the quote currency (INR) is needed to buy one unit of the base currency (USD). Look at time frames (daily, weekly, intraday), candlestick patterns (open, high, low, close) and technical indicators like support, resistance, RSI, and MACD to identify price trends.

How to become a currency analyst?

Currency analysis involves two approaches:
Fundamental analysis – tracking factors like interest rates, inflation, trade balance, crude oil prices, and US dollar strength.
Technical analysis – studying price charts and indicators to identify support/resistance zones and momentum. A balanced approach combining both helps predict short-term and long-term moves in forex markets.

How to read currency chart?

To become a currency analyst, start by learning the basics of forex markets, technical analysis, and global macroeconomics. A background in finance, economics, or statistics is helpful. Practice by tracking USD/INR or other major pairs daily, use demo trading platforms to test strategies, and gradually build expertise. Professional certifications like CFA, CMT or NISM (India) can add credibility, while continuous research and real-market experience are key to mastering the role.

Quote on Rupee by Anindya Banerjee

Who is Anindya Banerjee?

Anindya Banerjee is Head Currency and Commodity, Kotak Securities shares and his views on USINR is considered valuable by the traders and foreign exchange dealers.

Who is Dilip Parmar?

Mr. Dilip Parmar is Research Analyst, HDFC Securities and his views on USINR is considered valuable by the traders and foreign exchange dealers.