Chanakya IPO Lab – Subscription Dissection

🧪 Chanakya IPO Lab – Subscription Dissection

📌 Why This Matters-  Headline oversubscription numbers often hide who is actually funding the IPO. Chanakya IPO Lab focuses on money flow, timing logic, and demand quality, helping investors distinguish real conviction from optical comfort.

GRE Renew – D-2 (SME IPO) | Chanakya IPO Lab – Dissection
Net Issue Size: Rs. 37.55 Cr | QIB 50% | NII 15% | RII 35% | Open 13 Jan | Close 16 Jan

Subscription Status (as on D-2)
• QIB: 7.04x (2 applications) – headline number looks strong, but participation is extremely thin.
• NII: 1.24x (93 applications) – decent traction, but still not a “rush” yet.
• RII: 0.81x (426 applications) – retail is still below 1x; real momentum usually comes on Day-3.
• Total: 2.67x (525 applications).

Per-Application Money (Key Insight)
Issue size is fixed, so average money per application can be approximated by:
Avg amount per application (Category) ≈ (Category share of issue size × Category subscription multiple) / No. of applications in that category.

• QIB per application ≈ (50% × Rs. 37.55 Cr × 7.04) / 2
= (Rs. 18.775 Cr × 7.04) / 2
= Rs. 132.68 Cr / 2
= Rs. 66.34 Cr per QIB application (approx.)

• NII per application ≈ (15% × Rs. 37.55 Cr × 1.24) / 93
= (Rs. 5.6325 Cr × 1.24) / 93
= Rs. 6.98 Cr / 93
= Rs. 0.075 Cr = Rs. 7.5 lakh per NII application (approx.)

• RII per application ≈ (35% × Rs. 37.55 Cr × 0.81) / 426
= (Rs. 13.1425 Cr × 0.81) / 426
= Rs. 10.65 Cr / 426
= Rs. 0.025 Cr = Rs. 2.5 lakh per RII application (approx.)

QIB Behaviour Note (Non-offending but Clear)
With only 2 QIB applications, the 7.04x number is likely driven by very large single-ticket bids. When QIBs apply very early, they carry interest cost for extra days; hence, such early heavy bids are often done to create an impression of strong demand rather than for pure commercial efficiency. A clearer picture will emerge on the final day when broader QIB participation comes in.

GMP Trend (Open-High-Low-Close)
• GMP: 0 → 0 → 0 → 0 (No premium signal yet; grey market is silent as of D-2)

Overall Chanakya View (D-2)
Retail is still below 1x and GMP is zero, so the “listing excitement” is not visible yet. If the issue has to turn strong, it needs either (a) meaningful QIB participation (not just 1–2 big bids), or (b) a sharp Day-3 pickup in retail + NII.

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