Energy markets remain extremely sensitive

🟡 Gold Outlook – Range-Bound with Support on Dips

Gold is trading below the $5,000/oz zone, moving in a tight range as markets remain divided between rate uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

• Fed expected to hold rates, but guidance remains unclear

• Rising crude prices → inflation concerns persist

• Early signs of labour market weakness

👉 Despite “higher-for-longer” rate pressure (negative for gold),
safe-haven demand is keeping downside limited

Outlook:
➡️ Range-bound in short term
➡️ Buy-on-dips bias continues

⚫ Crude Oil Outlook – Pullback, But Structure Still Bullish

Crude has slipped below $94.5/bbl, mainly due to:

• Iraq resuming exports via Turkey (Ceyhan port)

• Temporary relief from Hormuz disruption

But the bigger picture remains tense:

• Ongoing Middle East conflict

• Iranian tensions rising

• Supply still constrained (~1.4 mbpd output)

👉 Market is now pricing structural supply risk, not temporary shocks

Outlook:
➡️ Range: $95 – $110
➡️ Upside risk remains strong if tensions escalate

🔩 Base Metals – Weak Demand, Mixed Trend

Base metals showing mixed signals:

• Aluminium & Zinc → down ~1%

• Nickel & Lead → marginal gains

• Copper → under pressure

Key concern:

• China demand slowdown

• Aluminium inventories at multi-year highs

• Copper inventories rising globally

👉 High prices + weak demand = limited upside

Outlook:
➡️ Range-bound to weak
➡️ Demand recovery needed for upside

🔵 Natural Gas – Bearish Bias Emerging

US Natural Gas falls near $2.97/MMBtu (2-week low)

Reasons:

• Warmer weather outlook

• Strong domestic production

• Lower-than-expected storage draw (38 Bcf)

👉 Despite global disruptions, US market remains insulated

Outlook:
➡️ Near-term bearish
➡️ Upside only if:

• Weather turns extreme

• LNG exports rise

🧠 Final Chanakya Insight

👉 Markets are entering a “conflict vs policy” phase

• Crude → geopolitical driven

• Gold → risk hedge

• Metals → demand weak

• Gas → supply heavy

👉 This is NOT a one-direction market
👉 It is a selective opportunity market