Today’s USD/INR Target & Stop Loss
The USD/INR outlook has turned mildly bearish to range-bound after the July futures slipped from 95.56 to 95.07, accompanied by a sharp fall in open interest, indicating long unwinding rather than aggressive fresh short selling. The highest-probability trade is selling on rise below Rs. 95.35, as the daily chart continues to show lower highs with RSI slipping below the neutral 50 mark. This bearish view will be invalidated if USD/INR sustains above Rs. 95.35, which could trigger a recovery towards 95.55–95.70. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
Probability:
✅ 65% chance of trading between Rs. 94.90 – 95.25
✅ 25% chance of recovery above Rs. 95.35 towards 95.55 – 95.70
❌ 10% chance of sharp decline below Rs. 94.80
Bullish Above: Rs. 95.35
Bearish Below: Rs. 94.95
Expected Range: Rs. 94.90 – 95.35
Best Trade Today: Sell USD/INR Futures below Rs. 94.95
USD/INR Levels Today: Support, Resistance, Futures & Trade Setup
USD/INR July Futures settled at 95.0725, losing nearly 0.49 points from the previous session. Open interest declined from 10.74 lakh contracts to 10.05 lakh, suggesting profit booking and long unwinding rather than aggressive bearish positioning.
The daily candlestick chart shows the pair struggling to sustain above 95.50, while the latest candle reflects renewed selling pressure. RSI has slipped to around 49, indicating weakening momentum, and Stochastic RSI is also rolling over after exiting the overbought zone. Unless USD/INR reclaims 95.35–95.40, traders should continue adopting a sell-on-rise strategy.
Key USD/INR Levels Today
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Support 1 | 94.90 |
| Support 2 | 94.75 |
| Pivot | 95.07 |
| Resistance 1 | 95.35 |
| Resistance 2 | 95.55 |
Chanakya View
👉 Below Rs. 94.95: Fresh selling may drag USD/INR towards Rs. 94.80–94.65.
👉 Below Rs. 94.80: Downside could extend towards Rs. 94.50.
👉 Above Rs. 95.35: Recovery may resume towards Rs. 95.55–95.70.
👉 Between Rs. 94.95–95.35: Expect consolidation and avoid aggressive trading.
USD/INR Futures Strategy Today – 29 July Expiry
Today’s Trade Setup
| Instrument | Trade | Entry Zone | Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR July Futures | Sell | Rs. 94.95 – 95.05 | Rs. 94.80 / 94.65 | Rs. 95.35 |
| USD/INR July Futures | Buy Above Breakout | Rs. 95.35 – 95.40 | Rs. 95.55 / 95.70 | Rs. 95.10 |
Why This Trade?
- USD/INR July Futures closed at 95.0725, down sharply from the previous session.
- Open Interest declined by 69,094 contracts, indicating long unwinding rather than fresh buying.
- The daily chart continues to form lower highs after rejection near 95.65.
- RSI around 49 reflects weakening momentum and lack of bullish strength.
- Stochastic RSI has started turning lower after exiting overbought territory.
- Price is hovering around the short-term pivot, suggesting range-bound trading unless 95.35 is crossed decisively.
- The technical structure favours selling rallies until a fresh breakout occurs.
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Support and Resistance
| Type | Levels |
|---|---|
| Immediate Support | 94.90 – 94.80 |
| Strong Support | 94.65 – 94.50 |
| Immediate Resistance | 95.35 – 95.55 |
| Strong Resistance | 95.70 – 95.90 |
Key Levels
| Level Type | Price |
|---|---|
| Pivot Point | 95.07 |
| Downside Trigger | 94.95 |
| Upside Trigger | 95.35 |
| Major Resistance | 95.55 |
| Strong Support | 94.80 |
PCR / Positioning Analysis Today
| Indicator | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Futures OI | Long unwinding visible |
| OI Change | -69,094 contracts |
| Volume | Healthy participation |
| Bias | Mildly Bearish |
| Positioning | Sell on Rise |
Bias: Bearish below Rs. 94.95, recovery only above Rs. 95.35.
Max Pain & Execution Plan
Today’s Execution Plan
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| Below Rs. 94.95 | Sell USD/INR Futures |
| Below Rs. 94.80 | Hold shorts for lower targets |
| Above Rs. 95.35 | Buy on breakout |
| Rs. 94.95–95.35 | No Trade Zone |
Technical View Today
| Indicator | Signal |
|---|---|
| Momentum | Mildly Bearish |
| RSI | 49.43 |
| Trend | Range-bound |
| Candlestick | Lower High Formation |
| Stochastic RSI | Turning Lower |
| Open Interest | Long Unwinding |
| Volume | Healthy |
Pro-Level Upgrade (What Big Players Do)
- Prefer selling on rallies while USD/INR remains below Rs. 95.35.
- Avoid initiating fresh longs inside the Rs. 94.95–95.35 range.
- Book partial profits near Rs. 94.80 and Rs. 94.65 on short positions.
- Shift to a bullish stance only after a sustained close above Rs. 95.35 with rising open interest.
- Watch the US Dollar Index and crude oil prices closely, as both are likely to influence the next directional move in USD/INR.