Coffee Can Portfolio of 15 December 2025

InterGlobe Aviation – Coffee Can Snapshot

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, operating under the brand IndiGo, is India’s largest passenger airline following a pure low-cost carrier (LCC) model. The company commenced operations in August 2006 with a single aircraft and has since grown into one of the world’s largest airlines by daily departures. IndiGo focuses on operational efficiency, high aircraft utilisation, cost leadership, and a simple unbundled product proposition offering low fares, on-time performance, and reliable service. As of FY24, IndiGo operates a fleet of over 260 aircraft and serves 86 destinations, including 24 international routes.

Market Share – India (Aviation Sector)

IndiGo: ~62%
Air India Group: ~26%
Akasa Air: ~5%
Vistara / Others: ~7%

International Passenger Share (India-based Airlines)

IndiGo: ~18%
Air India Group: ~14%
Others: ~68%

Key Operating Metrics (FY24)

Peak Daily Flights: 2,021 (vs 1,815 in FY23)
Passengers Carried: 106.7 million (vs 85.6 million in FY23)
Load Factor: ~86% (vs 82% in FY23)
ASK (Available Seat Km): 139.3 bn (vs 114.4 bn in FY23)
RPK (Revenue Passenger Km): 119.7 bn (vs 93.9 bn in FY23)

Revenue Mix

Ticket Sales: ~94%
Cargo Services: ~3%
In-flight Sales & Other Income: ~3%

Coffee Can Matrix – InterGlobe Aviation

Parameter	Data / Interpretation
CMP (Rs.)	4,860.50
P/E Ratio	37.11 → Premium valuation; reflects leadership but vulnerable to earnings cyclicality
Quarterly Net Profit (Rs. Cr.)	–2,614.10
Quarterly Profit Growth (%)	–164.37% → Sharp decline due to cost pressures & engine issues
Quarterly Sales (Rs. Cr.)	18,555.30
Quarterly Sales Growth (%)	9.34% → Demand remains healthy
Sales CAGR (5 Years)	17.71% → Strong, consistent long-term revenue growth
Profit CAGR (5 Years)	53.48% → High growth, but volatile due to aviation cycles
ROE (%)	103.80% → Elevated due to leverage & cycle effect
All-Time High (Rs.)	6,232.50
RSI	23.86 → Deep oversold zone
1-Week Return (%)	–9.50%
Volume Trend	1-day vol > 1-month avg → panic selling / distribution visible

Coffee Can Verdict – InterGlobe Aviation

👍 Positives (Coffee Can Strengths)

✔ Dominant market leader with ~62% domestic market share
✔ Strong 5-year Sales CAGR of ~18%
✔ Structural growth tailwinds from India’s aviation penetration
✔ Superior operating scale and cost leadership
✔ High aircraft utilisation and expanding international footprint

⚠️ Considerations (Coffee Can Risks)

✖ Earnings are highly cyclical and fuel-cost sensitive
✖ Recent quarterly loss highlights operating leverage risk
✖ High P/E despite near-term profit stress
✖ Aviation is not a classic “steady earnings” Coffee Can business

Chanakya’s Coffee Can Conclusion

InterGlobe Aviation meets the “Business Quality & Market Leadership” criteria of a Coffee Can stock but fails the “Earnings Stability” test in the short term.

This is not a buy-and-forget FMCG-style compounder, but for patient investors with a 5–10 year horizon, periods of stress often create accumulation opportunities in dominant franchises.

Best suited as a “Buy on Panic – Hold for Growth” Coffee Can candidate, not aggressive lump-sum buying.

For long-term study only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.

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