July 30, 2025
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Derivatives Analysis by SAMCO Securities for 31 July 2025
by Dhuhpesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Nifty holds ground but upside capped; eyes on FOMC and expiry-led volatility
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Nifty index exhibited lacklustre momentum ahead of the monthly expiry, but managed to close above its previous day’s high, indicating that buyers are still holding their ground. However, the index is yet to confirm the bullish engulfing reversal pattern, making it crucial for the pattern’s low to remain protected in the sessions ahead. On Wednesday, the Nifty ended the session with marginal gains of 33.95 points, settling at 24,855.05.
The index continues to trade above the important support range of 24,500–24,550, where the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (100-DEMA) is placed, suggesting a potential short-term bottoming formation. Despite this mild recovery, the index remains capped below the critical resistance zone of 24,900–25,000 — a region that coincides with a confluence of key short-term moving averages, including the 10-DEMA, 20-DEMA, and 50-DEMA. As long as these resistance levels remain intact, upward attempts are likely to face persistent selling pressure.
The session reflected a sideways tone with the index forming a narrow consolidation range, suggesting that a breakout in either direction will set the tone for the coming sessions. Until such a move materialises, the broader outlook remains indecisive, particularly with the dual overhang of the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision and monthly derivatives expiry. These factors are expected to fuel volatility and keep the market oscillating in a tight band. The ongoing tussle between bulls and bears has created a broader trading range, with any decisive break-down below the 24,500 mark is likely to reignite the bearish trend. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover near the 40-level, pointing to a lack of strong bullish traction.
Derivatives Snapshot:
The Futures & Options (F&O) landscape continues to mirror the broader bearish undertone. Heavy call writing at the 25,000 strike, where open interest has surged to 1.58 crore contracts, reinforces this level as a formidable resistance zone. Meanwhile, the highest put open interest stands at the 24,800 strike with 1.12 crore contracts, making it an immediate support level. Interestingly, increased put writing at lower strikes suggests that support is gradually building up. However, sustained call writing at higher levels has established a broader trading band. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has edged higher from 0.71 to 0.78, reflecting some bargain buying at lower levels, though the ceiling remains firm due to persistent call writing.
Volatility Check:
India VIX declined by 2.78%, settling at 11.20 — well below the psychological mark of 13. This subdued volatile environment suggests that while there’s intraday profit booking, there’s no sign of panic or large-scale liquidation, further reinforcing a range-bound setup rather than a breakdown scenario.
Market Outlook:
With the monthly expiry and FOMC meeting on the horizon, the Nifty appears locked in a consolidation phase with muted momentum. Although a potential bullish reversal candle has formed, the confirmation is still awaited. The 24,500–24,550 range will remain a critical short-term support zone, while a conclusive move above 24,900 is needed to unleash sustained upward momentum. For now, the index trades beneath a heavy resistance cluster around the 25,000 level, which also acts as a psychological hurdle.
Until Nifty decisively reclaims this mark, the overall bias remains cautious, and any rally could invite fresh short positions instead of signalling a structural trend reversal. Given the major upcoming events, the index is likely to see sharp two-way swings, and traders are advised to adopt tactical, risk-managed strategies in the days ahead
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