Derivatives Analysis by SAMCO Securities
by Dhuhpesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
🕗 Last Update: 8 October 2025, 8.00 PM
Nifty signals fatigue at higher levels; 25.2K–24.9Krange to dictate next move
Nifty index paused its recent upward momentum, forming two consecutive Shooting Star candlesticks—an early sign of exhaustion at higher levels. The index has been struggling to surpass its immediate resistance of 25,200. On Wednesday, Nifty slipped 62.15 points to close at 25,046.15, marginally above its crucial make-or-break zone. The index has now carved out a broad trading range between 25,200 and 24,900. As long as it remains within this band, a choppy and range-bound phase is likely to persist.
From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to hover around the psychological mark of 25,000, with multiple layers of support aligning nearby. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs coincide with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near 24,900, forming a strong confluence zone. This region between 24,900 and 24,950 has evolved into a critical buy-on-dips pocket. On the upside, unless the index decisively clears the 25,200–25,250 resistance band, sellers are expected to maintain their grip.
Notably, Nifty’s consecutive closes near the day’s low underscore renewed selling pressure at higher levels. Momentum indicators echo this cautious tone, with the RSI holding above the neutral 50 mark, indicating a sideways bias. The 24,900–25,000 range will serve as a key litmus test, coinciding with the Fibonacci retracement zone. Resistance persists at 25,200–25,250, while solid support remains intact between 24,900 and 24,950.
Derivatives Snapshot
The derivatives data continues to reflect a cautious undertone. For the second straight session, aggressive call writing outpaced put writing. A substantial build-up of 1.23 crore contracts at the 25,200 strike highlights this level as a formidable resistance zone. Meanwhile, hefty put open interest of 85.75 lakh contracts at the 25,000 strike suggests strong support at that level. The shift of call positions toward lower strikes, coupled with steady put additions near the current range, signals a distinctly sideways bias. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped further to 0.63, reinforcing a mildly bearish sentiment among traders.
Volatility Check
India VIX edged higher by 2.61% on Wednesday, extending its rebound from historically low levels. The uptick indicates that traders continue to adopt protective hedging strategies, ensuring disciplined risk management amid rising uncertainty.
Market Outlook
Nifty index has begun to show fatigue at higher levels, with two consecutive Shooting Star formations confirming persistent selling pressure. Wednesday’s decline broke the index’s recent winning streak, with a close below the previous day’s low signalling a possible pause in bullish momentum.
The 25,000 mark now serves as a pivotal battleground for bulls and bears. A sustained move below this level could validate further downside pressure and signal a false bullish breakout. On the contrary, heavy call writing near 25,200–25,250 suggests that the upside remains capped in the near term.
As long as Nifty holds above the 24,900–24,950 support zone, buyers are likely to defend lower levels. A decisive breakout above 25,200, however, could trigger renewed buying interest and pave the way for a move toward 25,500. Until then, a sideways-to-range-bound trading outlook remains dominant.
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