Gold, Crude Oil, Base Metals analysis

Gold surged back above $4,000 per ounce on Friday as a softer dollar and weak U.S. jobs data revived expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. Rising private-sector layoffs, particularly in automation-driven roles, highlighted stress in the labour market and lifted the probability of a December cut to 69 percent, up from 60 percent a day earlier. Persistent concerns over the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and sharp declines in technology stocks added to the risk-off sentiment, driving safe-haven flows into precious metals. Silver also moved higher to around $48.7 per ounce, gaining more than 1.5 percent intraday, though it remains on track for a flat weekly close due to recent profit-taking. Overall, weakening macro indicators, slowing job momentum, and fading confidence in U.S. growth continue to keep the medium-term bias positive for bullion, supported by policy easing expectations, dollar weakness, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

WTI crude oil rebounded more than 1 percent to trade near $60 per barrel, supported by lower-level buying, although caution persisted across energy markets. Renewed oversupply concerns intensified as OPEC+ output increased, with major producers resuming production and non-OPEC suppliers also expanding supply. A larger-than-expected 5.2 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories deepened fears of a supply glut, further weighed down by a firm dollar and the broader risk-off mood linked to the U.S. government shutdown. U.S. stockpiles climbed due to higher imports and slower refinery activity, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. OPEC+’s modest output hike for December and its decision to pause further increases in early 2025 reflect apprehension over market balance. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s recent price cuts for Asian buyers and sanctions-driven disruptions in Russian and Iranian exports are creating competing pressures. The crude market remains vulnerable to supply imbalances and macro headwinds, with sustained production discipline and signs of demand recovery essential for any sustained bullish momentum.

Base metals traded mixed on Friday, with aluminium and copper edging lower amid a fragile global risk environment. Weak U.S. economic data and concerns over the ongoing government shutdown kept investors cautious, while disappointing trade figures from China added to the downbeat tone. China’s October exports declined 1.1 percent, and import growth slowed to just 1 percent, signalling softer demand from the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. Copper prices stabilised after a pullback from record highs earlier in the week, even as China’s refined copper imports fell nearly 10 percent month-on-month in October, reflecting subdued industrial activity. However, expectations of tighter supply offered some support after China’s non-ferrous metals association called for stricter limits on new smelting projects to reduce overcapacity. Base metals are likely to remain range-bound as traders weigh slowing Chinese demand against persistent supply risks, with attention now shifting to next week’s Chinese economic data for fresh direction.

U.S. natural gas futures eased to around $4.38 per mmbtu, consolidating near multi-month highs. Prices remain supported by strong LNG export demand, with flows near a record 17 bcf per day, up 2 percent on the week. EIA data showed a 33 bcf storage build, below the five-year average of 42 bcf, keeping inventories 4.3 percent above seasonal norms at 3.915 tcf. Cooler mid-November weather forecasts may temporarily boost heating demand, although expectations of warmer trends later in the month could limit consumption. Production remains robust near 110 bcf per day, ensuring ample supply despite elevated exports. The market remains broadly balanced, but sustained LNG demand and tighter storage trends are likely to exert upward pressure in the near term.