Commodity Insights

Gold slips on profit-booking; crude gains as geopolitical tensions rise
Spot gold retreated below $4,190 as traders booked profits ahead of next week’s U.S. Fed meeting, with markets awaiting clarity on the interest-rate path. Silver corrected 2.1% to $57.20 after touching a fresh record high of $58.98, though the metal remains up over 100% YTD, supported by supply deficits and its recent inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list. Soft U.S. labour data and rising expectations of a 25 bps Fed rate cut have kept safe-haven sentiment firm, even as U.S.–Russia talks made no progress.

Crude oil holds steady with a mild upward bias
WTI crude edged higher after Ukraine’s strike on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, the fifth such incident, raised supply-risk concerns. Though flows to Hungary and Slovakia remain intact, geopolitical premium has supported prices. U.S. pressure on Venezuela and stalled diplomatic discussions with Russia also kept sentiment positive. However, upside remains capped by weak demand indicators and a 574,000-barrel U.S. inventory build, along with higher gasoline and distillate stocks. Crude is expected to stay range-bound, with geopolitical tensions providing a floor and oversupply limiting rallies.

Base metals ease; copper cools after fresh record
Copper slipped nearly 1%, easing to $11,395/ton after hitting an all-time high earlier in the session. The rally was fueled by strong LME warehouse withdrawals and expectations of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper next year, along with ongoing global mine disruptions. Aluminum and zinc softened about 0.5%, while lead traded steady.

U.S. natural gas hits 3-year high
Natural gas futures surged to $5.00/MMBtu, extending a 65% rally on strong LNG export demand and Europe’s move to phase out Russian LNG by 2027. U.S. LNG exports jumped 40% YoY in November to 10.7 million tonnes. A colder-than-normal winter forecast and an unexpected 11 bcf inventory withdrawal have further strengthened the market trend.