Commodity Radar: Gold & Silver Rebound on Dollar Weakness
đź•— Last Update: 25 February 2026, 7.30 PM
by Riteshkumar Sahu (riteshkumar.sahu@kotak.com), Saait Sawant Dessai
Commodity Radar: Gold & Silver Rebound on Dollar Weakness | Crude Steady Ahead of US–Iran Talks | Base Metals Extend Rally
Precious Metals Outlook – Gold & Silver Gain Amid Geopolitical Risk
Gold prices rebounded strongly, rising nearly 1% toward the $5,190 per ounce zone as weakness in the US dollar and ongoing macro uncertainty revived safe-haven demand. Concerns around US import tariffs, rising sovereign debt levels and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have prompted renewed defensive positioning by investors. Market participants continue rotating toward hard assets amid fears of currency debasement and fiscal instability.
Silver outperformed the broader precious metals complex, rallying more than 4% on the back of fresh tariff developments and heightened geopolitical risk. Despite the rebound, upside momentum in bullion remains partially capped by firm Federal Reserve guidance, with policymakers maintaining a cautious stance amid resilient labour data and sticky inflation. Structurally, precious metals remain supported, but a sustained breakout may require clearer signals of monetary policy easing.
Crude Oil Outlook – Markets Cautious Ahead of US–Iran Negotiations
WTI crude oil is trading steady near $65.60 per barrel as markets assess the potential outcomes of upcoming US–Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Geneva. The geopolitical backdrop remains highly sensitive, with reports indicating one of the largest US military deployments in the Middle East since 2003. The presence of multiple aircraft carriers and air assets has increased risk premiums across energy markets.
While diplomatic engagement remains the official stance, the possibility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — responsible for roughly one-quarter of global seaborne crude flows — continues to keep supply risks skewed to the upside. At the same time, steady global supply growth is preventing aggressive price rallies, leaving crude oil largely headline-driven in the near term.
Base Metals Outlook – China Policy Support Fuels Demand Expectations
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange extended gains for a second consecutive session, supported by fresh policy measures from China aimed at stabilising its property sector. Shanghai authorities have relaxed home-buying restrictions, allowing non-residents with one year of tax or social security contributions to purchase homes, compared to the earlier three-year requirement.
These supportive measures, combined with post-holiday industrial reopening and improving consumption expectations, have strengthened sentiment across metals markets. Stronger physical demand prospects may accelerate inventory drawdowns over the coming months, helping absorb the recent build-up in global stockpiles.
Natural Gas Outlook – Warm Weather Pressure Drives Prices Lower
US natural gas futures declined more than 3%, slipping to multi-month lows as warmer weather forecasts reduced expectations of late-season heating demand. Updated models indicate above-average temperatures across much of the western United States, limiting residential consumption and lowering power generation demand.
Production remains robust, with Lower-48 output averaging 108.7 bcfd in February compared to 106.3 bcfd in January. Although storage inventories were around 6% below normal in mid-February, the gap is expected to narrow quickly due to reduced withdrawals. LNG exports continue to provide support, reaching near-record levels of 18.7 bcfd, but overall market sentiment is gradually shifting toward shoulder-season oversupply risks rather than winter tightness concerns.
Bullion & Crude analysis by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities:
Gold and silver futures extended their rally today, with COMEX gold climbing to $5,198 per ounce and silver advancing to $87.68 per ounce, as renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks boosted safe-haven demand. The move follows President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he plans to impose a 15% global tariff under Trade Act provisions, after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down his earlier emergency tariffs. A 10% tariff would take effect beginning February 24, coinciding with the halt of prior emergency duty collections. The full 15% rate may follow once formally enacted through a White House order. Bullion prices may remain supported as the shift effectively overrides recently negotiated trade arrangements and has injected fresh uncertainty into global markets.
Bullion had already been building momentum late last Friday after Trump initially pledged to impose a new global tariff after the landmark Supreme ruling, reviving trade concerns. Gold futures on COMEX posted a third consecutive weekly gain, settling above $5,130 per ounce, while silver surged more than 5% to reclaim levels above $84 per ounce. Beyond trade policy uncertainty, precious metals also drew support from rising geopolitical tensions. Markets reacted to increased speculation of a potential U.S.–Iran conflict following Trump’s remarks and reports of an expanded U.S. military presence in the region, further reinforcing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
WTI Crude oil prices are trading below $66/bbl, down more than 1% from last week’s close, as renewed optimism over a possible Iran nuclear agreement weighed on geopolitical risk premiums. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly said there is a “good chance” of reaching a diplomatic, win-win solution. Further adding to market uncertainty, Trump announced a fresh 15% global tariff aimed at preserving protective trade measures following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his emergency levies. Oil prices may trade in a range ahead of a third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday, while concerns over the future of U.S. trade agreements cloud the outlook for global growth and fuel demand. Meanwhile, prompt spread for Brent and WTI has narrowed to 43 cents and 18 cents, respectively, from more than $1 and 60 cents last month. While the market remains in backwardation, the tighter spreads suggest easing near-term supply tightness.
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