MCX Gold Price Analysis Prediction forecast 
Gold Analysis covers:
For 23 June 2025
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Quote on Gold by Riteshkumar Sahu, Abhijit Chavan of Kotak Securities
Gold retreats as Mideast tensions ease, Fed hints at fewer rate cuts; Crude Oil falls on Trump’s Iran timeline
Comex Gold August futures fell for a third consecutive day, reaching a new one-week low below $3,360 per ounce. This decline marks gold’s first weekly fall this month, primarily driven by technical trading rather than economic news. A slight de-escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions has reduced safe-haven demand for gold. Concurrently, a Federal Reserve inflation warning has diminished the likelihood of multiple rate cuts this year. Although the Fed held rates steady and projected two cuts by year-end, Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that tariffs could continue to fuel inflation. Fresh Fed forecasts also indicate weaker growth, higher inflation, and lower employment in 2025. Investors are also closely monitoring the White House as President Donald Trump weighs direct military action against Iran, with a decision anticipated within two weeks.
WTI crude oil futures dipped to $72.5/barrel on Friday, yet remain poised for a third consecutive weekly gain amidst escalating Middle East tensions. Ongoing strikes between Israel and Iran are fueling supply disruption fears, with Israel intensifying attacks on Tehran. Today’s slump in crude prices followed President Trump’s signaling a decision on striking Iran within two weeks, easing immediate concerns of a US attack. Despite this, senior US officials are reportedly preparing for a potential strike, indicating an evolving situation. While Israel continues to target Iran’s nuclear facilities, the country’s crude-exporting infrastructure remains intact. However, signs suggest Iran is expediting crude exports, with storage tanks at the Kharg Island terminal nearing capacity. The primary market concern revolves around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global crude passes. Currently, there are no indications that Tehran intends to disrupt shipping in this critical waterway.
Base metals extended their declines, with the exception of copper, amid limited risk appetite as traders assessed the geopolitical situation and digested the recent FOMC economic projections. Copper found support from a declining volume of metal in LME warehouses, pushing the LME copper cash to 3-month forward spread into steep backwardation. Additionally, markets experienced a temporary sense of relief after fears of immediate escalation eased, following Trump’s indication that a decision on whether to strike Iran would be made within two weeks. Metals are expected to remain range bound ahead of a data-packed week, as traders await key releases including US GDP, Core PCE, and flash PMI numbers from major global economies.
US natural gas prices extended their winning streak for a fifth consecutive session, climbing 2.23% to $4.078/mmbtu on Nymex driven by forecasts of intense heat across the eastern half of the country, anticipating a significant boost in cooling demand. Today’s EIA report indicated a 95 bcf increase in natural gas inventories for the week ending June 13, largely aligning with the median analyst estimate of +97 bcf. Despite minor overnight shifts to cooler forecasts for the Northeast and Midwest, weather models show hotter trends for the South and Interior West. The overall outlook points to a major heatwave across the eastern US in the first half of next week. Total stockpiles now stand at 2.802 tcf, maintaining a 6.1% surplus over the five-year average.
Analysis by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities)
COMEX August gold futures surged to $3,382.3 per ounce, driven by a pullback in the US dollar following softer-than-expected inflation data for May, which reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, both figures coming in below market estimates. Gold prices later pared gains and ended the session flat amid renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade relations. President Trump stated that a trade deal is finalized, pending approval from Chinese President Xi, while China’s Vice Commerce Minister emphasized the ongoing constructive and rational dialogue between the two nations. Besides, the European Central Bank reported that gold now accounts for 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, second only to the US dollar. Today, gold is trading above $3,390 per ounce, up 1.5%, on renewed safe-haven demand spurred by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Trump’s announcement that unilateral tariffs will be imposed within two weeks. Market participants are now keenly awaiting US Producer Price Index (PPI) and jobless claims data for further policy direction.
WTI crude oil surged 5% yesterday to $68.4 per barrel as rising tensions in the Middle East pose serious risks to regional energy stability and global crude supply. The US State Department is reportedly preparing to evacuate non-essential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad and has authorized the departure of military families from the region due to escalating security risks, particularly related to stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran. Meanwhile, US inventory data presented a mixed picture. The EIA reported a 3.6 million barrel decline in crude oil stocks for the week ending June 6, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 1.5 million and 1.2 million barrels, respectively. Earlier today, oil prices briefly rose to $69.29 per barrel, highest level since April, but have since retreated to below $68 per barrel amid renewed concerns over global trade tensions, after Trump indicated he would soon notify trading partners of new unilateral tariff rates.
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