Gold Price Forecast for 7 July 2025
Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher)
for 26 June 2025
COMEX August gold futures slipped to $3,321/oz on Thursday, weighed down by a rebound in the U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields following stronger-than-expected labor market data. June’s payroll report showed 147,000 jobs were added, exceeding expectations of 110,000, while the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. Surprisingly resilient U.S. jobs data pushed the odds of a July rate cut off the table. However, prices managed to recover from lower levels amid trade related uncertainty. President Trump has threatened to impose a “30% or 35%” tariff on Japan if a trade deal is not finalized before a deadline set for next week. While agreements have already been reached with the UK, China, and Vietnam, the U.S.-India trade deal appears close, and the European Union may announce a basic agreement with the U.S. to avoid new tariffs. Gold is currently holding steady near $3,350 amid thin trading due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday and the lack of major economic releases. Besides, the House of Representatives narrowly passed President Trump’s tax and spending bill, which includes a $5 trillion increase to the federal debt ceiling, effectively eliminating the near-term risk of a government payment default.
WTI crude oil slipped 0.7% yesterday to close the session at $67 per barrel, weighed down by renewed tariff threats from President Trump, the upcoming OPEC+ output decision, and a build in U.S. crude inventories. Markets are closely watching developments on the trade front ahead of the July 9 deadline for the reimplementation of “Liberation Day” tariffs. Today, oil prices dipped further below $67 per barrel and are likely to remain under pressure, as OPEC+ appears set to announce another oversized production hike. Traders are also expected to remain cautious, as Trump stated his administration may begin sending tariff notification letters to trading partners as early as Friday, ahead of deadline for trade negotiations.
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