December 12, 2025
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Jainee’s Coffee Can Portfolio
Updated: 5.30 PM, 5 December 2025
High-Conviction Winners
Jainee’s Coffee Can Portfolio on 15 December 2025 (New Call every Week)
InterGlobe Aviation – Coffee Can Snapshot
InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, operating under the brand IndiGo, is India’s largest passenger airline following a pure low-cost carrier (LCC) model. The company commenced operations in August 2006 with a single aircraft and has since grown into one of the world’s largest airlines by daily departures. IndiGo focuses on operational efficiency, high aircraft utilisation, cost leadership, and a simple unbundled product proposition offering low fares, on-time performance, and reliable service. As of FY24, IndiGo operates a fleet of over 260 aircraft and serves 86 destinations, including 24 international routes.
Market Share – India (Aviation Sector)
IndiGo: ~62%
Air India Group: ~26%
Akasa Air: ~5%
Vistara / Others: ~7%
International Passenger Share (India-based Airlines)
IndiGo: ~18%
Air India Group: ~14%
Others: ~68%
Key Operating Metrics (FY24)
Peak Daily Flights: 2,021 (vs 1,815 in FY23)
Passengers Carried: 106.7 million (vs 85.6 million in FY23)
Load Factor: ~86% (vs 82% in FY23)
ASK (Available Seat Km): 139.3 bn (vs 114.4 bn in FY23)
RPK (Revenue Passenger Km): 119.7 bn (vs 93.9 bn in FY23)
Revenue Mix
Ticket Sales: ~94%
Cargo Services: ~3%
In-flight Sales & Other Income: ~3%
Coffee Can Matrix – InterGlobe Aviation
| Parameter | Data / Interpretation |
|---|---|
| CMP (Rs.) | 4,860.50 |
| P/E Ratio | 37.11 → Premium valuation; reflects leadership but vulnerable to earnings cyclicality |
| Quarterly Net Profit (Rs. Cr.) | –2,614.10 |
| Quarterly Profit Growth (%) | –164.37% → Sharp decline due to cost pressures & engine issues |
| Quarterly Sales (Rs. Cr.) | 18,555.30 |
| Quarterly Sales Growth (%) | 9.34% → Demand remains healthy |
| Sales CAGR (5 Years) | 17.71% → Strong, consistent long-term revenue growth |
| Profit CAGR (5 Years) | 53.48% → High growth, but volatile due to aviation cycles |
| ROE (%) | 103.80% → Elevated due to leverage & cycle effect |
| All-Time High (Rs.) | 6,232.50 |
| RSI | 23.86 → Deep oversold zone |
| 1-Week Return (%) | –9.50% |
| Volume Trend | 1-day vol > 1-month avg → panic selling / distribution visible |
Coffee Can Verdict – InterGlobe Aviation
👍 Positives (Coffee Can Strengths)
✔ Dominant market leader with ~62% domestic market share
✔ Strong 5-year Sales CAGR of ~18%
✔ Structural growth tailwinds from India’s aviation penetration
✔ Superior operating scale and cost leadership
✔ High aircraft utilisation and expanding international footprint
⚠️ Considerations (Coffee Can Risks)
✖ Earnings are highly cyclical and fuel-cost sensitive
✖ Recent quarterly loss highlights operating leverage risk
✖ High P/E despite near-term profit stress
✖ Aviation is not a classic “steady earnings” Coffee Can business
Chanakya’s Coffee Can Conclusion
InterGlobe Aviation meets the “Business Quality & Market Leadership” criteria of a Coffee Can stock but fails the “Earnings Stability” test in the short term.
This is not a buy-and-forget FMCG-style compounder, but for patient investors with a 5–10 year horizon, periods of stress often create accumulation opportunities in dominant franchises.
Best suited as a “Buy on Panic – Hold for Growth” Coffee Can candidate, not aggressive lump-sum buying.
For long-term study only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
A coffee can portfolio is a long-term, low-risk investment strategy that involves buying shares of high-quality companies and holding them for a decade or more without active trading. The “buy and forget” method aims to capture long-term compounding by minimizing transaction costs and avoiding emotional decisions based on short-term market volatility. The name comes from an old-time practice of storing valuables in a coffee can.
Key characteristics-
Long-term commitment: The core principle is to buy and hold for at least 10 years, allowing investments to grow over time.
Focus on quality: It emphasizes selecting companies with a proven track record of consistent performance, sound financials, and competitive advantages.
Minimal intervention: The strategy discourages frequent buying and selling, often referred to as the “buy and forget” method.
Reduces costs and stress: By limiting trades, it lowers transaction costs and reduces the stress of constantly monitoring the market.
Jainee P. Gordhandas (now Jainee Shah after marriage) is a Chartered Accountant and among the first SEBI-registered Research Analysts in India. Her analytical work and market insights are regularly published in the widely followed investment publications Chanakya Ni Pothi Gujarati and Chanakya Ni Pothi English.
Known for her sharp understanding of equity markets, she frequently appears on leading business television channels such as Gujarat Samachar TV, CNBC Gujarati, V TV, and others, where she discusses market trends, investment opportunities, and sectoral outlooks.
Her credibility, deep research skills, and years of market experience have made her one of the respected voices in the Indian investment community.
Beautiful analysis of a stock.
Brilliantly convincing analysis.
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