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Jewels for Mahurat Trading & Value Investment during …Samvat 2079

1) HDFC Bank  
2) TCS  
3) Axis bank 
4) Tata Steels
5) Tata Motors
6) SBI Life Insurance
7) Tech Mahindra
8) HDFc Life Insurance
9) Hero Motocorp

Midcap Mahurat Picks by Chanakya

1) HDFC AMC
2) ICICI Securities
3) Gland Pharma
4) National Aluminum
5) Voltas
6) Thermax
7) Tata Elexi
8) United Spirits
9) HIL ltd

Small cap Mahurat Picks by Chanakya
1) IDFC first Bank
2) Samvardhana Mother son
3) Zomato
4) EPL ltd
5) Bank of India
6) Bhel
7) Karur Vysya Bank
8) Electro steel Casting
9) Indian Oil

2022 Diwali Technical Picks for Samvat 2079 by Retail Research team at HDFC Securities.

SAMVAT 2079 HIGH HOPES FOR BROAD-BASED GROWTH & LOWER VOLATILITY

Samvat 2078 turned out to be a challenging and forgettable year for global equities, given the many headwinds, including rate hikes, energy crisis, Russia-Ukraine conflict, continued supply disruptions, FPI outflows, heightened inflation, and more. We saw heightened volatility in the markets – more on the downside. Indian equity markets, however, proved resilient and outperformed most developed and emerging economies. Robust retail, HNI SIPs and lumpsum inflows helped offset the large outflows from FPIs without too much damage to the indices.

In the first half of the Samvat 2078, we encountered firm commodity prices, high employment in the US and surging inflation, leading to a clamp down by central banks, which is now resulting in some cool off in commodity prices and slowing global economic growth.

The Indian economy remains in a sweet spot relative to many other economies, given the large demography, higher domestic dependency, as well as the astute handling of uncertain times by politicians and the bureaucracy. However, any prolonged delay in the resurgence of growth globally could hold back India’s growth story in the interim. This is despite the fact that India is in a very good position to withstand such times compared to a lot of other countries.

Within Indian stocks, Power, Capital Goods, Auto and PSEs performed well in Samvat 2078, reflecting a return of cyclicals to the fore. FMCG also did well as a defensive option, even as ITC got rerated and contributed significantly to the sector returns. On the other hand, Realty, IT, Metals and Healthcare were the main underperformers. IT remained under pressure due to lower visibility into revenue growth due to recession fears in the developed economies and higher wage cost pressures. Metal stocks declined as metal prices fell faster than the cost of raw materials and fuel/power.

In Samvat 2079, volatility could continue, though at a slower pace. We may be close to a peak in the rate hike cycle. The resumption of growth at the global level and particularly on the domestic front is required to shake off the sluggish mood and get back on the path of a sustained uptrend in the markets. Though our trust in the abilities of central bank and government policymakers to ward off any catastrophe in waning, we must reinstate our trust and hope they can steer the global economy out of such an uncertain environment.

India is largely a domestic consumption led economy, now trying to expand the manufacturing footprint with the help of schemes like PLI. The domestic investment cycle is exhibiting signs of a revival, and, with normal monsoons, the foundation has been laid for the economy to regain its earlier rates of growth. Indian conglomerates have pared debt and improved their balance sheets and now look ready to expand.

India is largely a domestic consumption led economy, now trying to expand the manufacturing footprint with the help of schemes like PLI. The domestic investment cycle is exhibiting signs of a revival, and, with normal monsoons, the foundation has been laid for the economy to regain its earlier rates of growth. Indian conglomerates have pared debt and improved their balance sheets and now look ready to expand.

In such times, we are largely satisfied with the way our Diwali picks of Samvat 2078 performed, though in hindsight we could have avoided some picks.

HDFC Securities is recommending 10 technical picks on this auspicious occasion. Accumulating them in the indicated buying range for given targets for next one year.
1) Deepak Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd CMP Rs. 895 Target Rs. 1058
2) ICICI Bank CMP Rs. 870 Target Rs. 999
3) Rail Vikas Nigam CMP Rs. 36.75 Target Rs. 42.25
4) Sun TV Network CMP Rs. 536 Target Rs. 624
5) TCI Express CMP Rs. 1890 Target Rs. 2169
6) Aster DM Healthcare CMP Rs. 242 Target Rs. 278
7) Bharat Dynamics CMP Rs. 858 Target Rs. 1022
8) Bharat Electronics CMP Rs. 101 Target Rs. 123
9) Birla Corporation CMP Rs. 896 Target Rs. 1069
10 Cipla CMP Rs. 1109 Target Rs. 1283

Wishing you all a Happy and Prosperous Diwali!

Mahurat Picks from ICICI Securities:
Year 2022 has been marked by volatility on account of a wide variety of global new flows ranging from geopolitical issues, higher inflation (mainly food and energy) and hawkish action of central banks. This has led to a decline in global equities, mainly in the US and Europe. Amid all this negativity, India has relatively outperformed global peers in terms of all economic parameters (capex spend, discretionary consumption, robust pick-up in banking activity, etc). The same is reflected across Indian equity markets. Going ahead, we believe Corporate India will likely deliver earnings growth in excess of 15% over the next two years given the current economic milieu and provide a plethora of investing opportunities in Indian markets. However, sticky global inflation will keep central banks hawkish, and India will be no exception. Similar implications for global liquidity flows may create medium term volatility in Indian markets. However, if such a scenario materializes, then the same will be a strong opportunity to take exposure to Indian equities. Our one year forward, Nifty target is at 19425 (21x FY24 EPS) with sectoral bias towards banks, capital goods/infrastructure, autos, avoiding sectors having more global exposure like IT, oil & gas and metals.

Given the scenario, we see reasonable opportunities across the market spectrum with key filter being quality. We continue to advise investors to utilize equities as a key asset class for long term wealth generation by investing in quality companies with strong earnings growth and visibility, stable cash flows, RoE and RoCE.

We recommend Axis Bank, City Union Bank, Apollo Tyres, Eicher Motors, Coforge, Lemon Tree Hotels, Healthcare Global Enterprises, Laurus Labs, Container Corp and Havells India as our Muhurat 2022 picks.

Guidance by Nilesh Shah, Group President & MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company for Samvat 2079. He says a momentum investor will have a tough time managing volatility.

“Banks, capital goods, manufacturing are likely to outperform the market in Samvat 2079. Tech and pharma will provide interesting opportunities on a bottom-up basis in the correction,”

Diwali Picks from PL Advisory

This Diwali – Agri Commodity will be the Firecracker! In current global scenario – from the US to Europe to China, waters have receded, leaving the world in the grip of accelerating Drought which has a profound economic impact. Given the situation in global markets, lands are turning barren leading to a thought that the world is possibly staring at a food grain shortage, resulting in a surge in global crop prices.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 considers India among the handful of nations that will drive food grain production this decade.
In India the agricultural exports have grown by 19.92% in FY22 to touch $ 50.21 billion. The growth rate is remarkable as it is over and above the growth of 17.66%, at $41.87 billion, achieved in 2020-21. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the Food Price Index has increased by 30% in the year 2021-22. The last time it had increased in similar proportion was in 2010-11. Meanwhile, the production of total food grains in India during the 2021-22 season is estimated to be at record 315.72 million tonnes, a rise of 4.98 million Tonnes than harvested during 2020-21.
Among crops, record harvest is expected for rice, maize, gram, pulses, rapeseed and mustard, oilseeds and sugarcane. As per the data, the highest ever exports have been achieved for staples like rice ($9.65 billion), wheat ($2.19 billion), sugar ($4.6 billion), and other cereals ($1.08 billion). India seems to be better placed at agriculture commodities as the country estimates to have record production for majority of commodities whereas the world is crying in drought making their lands too barren to seed the harvest. This creates a big opportunity for India to feed and nourish the world and capture a material share in agriculture commodities export market.
1) Dalmia Bharat & Sugar (Sugar Sector)
2) KRBL (Rice)
3) Chambal Fertilizer (Fertilizers)
4) Vardhaman Textiles (Cotton Textiles)
5) Kaveri Seeds (AgriSeeds)

Diwali Picks by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
Samvat 2078 will go down in the history as one of the most volatile years where in exuberance around Tech stocks and IPO boom was followed by Russia Ukraine war, multi decade high global inflation and fastest interest rate hikes in recent times. Amongst this hazy global scenario, India is today looking like a pearl in the ocean with benefits from food security, domestic demand driven economy, PLI scheme across manufacturing and defence, strong banking system with decade low NPA, strong infra capex and rising investments in Unicorns. Even as high inflation has impacted demand in lower and lower middle sections, festive demand is buoyant with waned Covid impact, good monsoons, pick up in Infra & Real Estate development (Boosts employment) and strong hiring demand across sectors. Although uncertain global environment and expected slowdown in US and Europe remain a concern, we believe India will successfully navigate this period and emerge stronger. We continue to prefer companies with presence in emerging segments, strong balance sheets and business moats.

Large Cap Picks
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Avenue Supermart, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank & Mahindra & Mahindra.

Mid Cap Picks
Ashok Leyland, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals & Federal Bank

Small Cap Picks
Jubilant Ingrevia, VIP Industries & Westlife Development.

Wish you & Your family Happy and Prosperous Samvat 2079