Gold continues to hold firm

Spot gold remained below $4,750 per ounce on Friday but is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain, supported by resilient investment demand. Silver also held firm above $75, marking a similar weekly uptrend.

Key Drivers:

• Softer US dollar boosting bullion appeal
• Cooling crude prices easing inflation pressure
• Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty

Risk Factors:

• Upcoming US CPI data could shift rate expectations
• Persistent tensions in Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz

👉 View: Bullion remains cautiously bullish, but highly sensitive to inflation data and geopolitical headlines.

🛢️ Crude Oil Outlook – Supply Risks Keep Prices Supported

WTI crude hovered near $99, while Brent traded above $96, gaining around 1% intraday. However, both benchmarks are still heading for their sharpest weekly decline since June.

Key Drivers:

• Saudi Arabia production cut of 600,000 bpd
• Reduced East-West pipeline flows
• Attacks on key energy infrastructure

Geopolitical Factors:

• Rising tensions around Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s potential transit fee threats

Demand Signals:

• China reserve drawdowns
• Fuel rationing in India

👉 View: Crude remains volatile with upward bias, driven by supply disruptions, but downside risk persists if diplomacy progresses.

🔩 Base Metals – Mixed Trends, Sentiment-Driven Moves

Base metals are trading mixed, with copper and aluminium showing strength, while zinc remains under pressure.

Copper:

• Third weekly gain supported by improving sentiment
• Stronger China import premiums indicate demand recovery
• Rising LME inventories cap further upside

Aluminium:

• Supported by supply-side constraints

Zinc:

• Faces near-term weakness due to demand concerns

👉 View: Momentum is fragile and sentiment-driven, with geopolitical cues playing a major role.

🔥 Natural Gas – Weak Demand Keeps Pressure Intact

US natural gas futures remained near $2.67/MMBtu, the lowest level since November 2024.

Key Factors:

• Higher-than-expected storage build (50 Bcf)
• Above-normal temperatures reducing demand
• Strong production and steady LNG exports

👉 View: Bearish bias continues due to oversupply and mild weather, though any shift in exports or temperature could trigger short-term bounce.

📊 Commodity Price Snapshot

📌 Overall Market View

• Gold & Silver: Cautiously bullish
• Crude Oil: Volatile with supply-driven upside
• Base Metals: Mixed, sentiment-driven
• Natural Gas: Bearish due to weak demand

👉 Key Trigger Ahead: US CPI data + geopolitical developments will dictate next directional move across commodities.