Commodity Insights

Gold: Reclaims $5,000 as Strategic Dip-Buying Returns

Spot gold rebounded sharply to above $5,040/oz, rising over 1%, as dip buyers stepped in after an exceptionally volatile phase in late January. The move marks a partial retracement of the post–all-time-high correction, with gold now recovering nearly half of its recent losses.

Silver also moved higher, though price action remains more erratic due to thinner liquidity and elevated speculative positioning. Over the weekend, data confirmed that the PBoC extended gold purchases for the 15th consecutive month, signaling continued reserve diversification in calibrated volumes. Chinese regulators have also urged banks to curb exposure to US Treasuries, underscoring rising concerns over concentration risk in US assets.

Major global institutions continue to maintain a constructive medium- to long-term view on gold, citing sustained central-bank buying, policy uncertainty, and diversification flows. While near-term volatility around US data and Fed expectations may persist, structurally gold remains well supported, with pullbacks attracting strategic demand rather than indicating trend exhaustion.

Crude Oil: Slips as Geopolitical Risk Premium Eases

WTI crude edged lower by around 0.5% to just above $63/barrel, as easing Middle East tensions reduced near-term supply risk premiums. Markets responded to signs of diplomatic progress after Iran–US talks in Oman, which Tehran described as constructive.

US President Trump confirmed follow-up discussions this week, alongside a scheduled meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on February 11, even as Washington continues to signal possible tariff-related actions. Crude had rallied earlier in 2026 on geopolitical risk and supply disruptions, including curtailed flows from Kazakhstan.

Focus now shifts to upcoming outlooks from OPEC, IEA and US EIA, along with commentary from industry leaders at International Energy Week in London. Near term, oil is expected to remain range-bound, with diplomacy capping upside while fragile geopolitics and uneven supply flows limiting downside.

Base Metals: Mixed to Soft Ahead of China Holidays

Base metals traded on a mixed-to-softer tone as demand signals weakened ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays in China. Copper briefly climbed above $13,050/ton, but momentum remained fragile as near-record prices dampened industrial buying.

Chinese fabricators slowed purchases as factories prepared for holiday shutdowns, while rising inventories across major trading hubs, especially LME warehouses in Asia, pointed to improving short-term supply. Expectations of higher refined copper output in China this year have also weighed on sentiment, raising concerns that speculative gains may have outpaced physical demand.

That said, longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, driven by electrification, renewable energy, and data-centre expansion, while supply disruptions at key mining operations continue to provide a floor once seasonal demand normalises.

US Natural Gas: Slumps on Warmer Weather & Supply Concerns

US natural gas futures fell sharply by 6.2% to around $3.20/MMBtu, marking the lowest level in over three weeks. The decline was driven by warmer-than-normal weather forecasts across central and southern regions, spreading east and reducing heating and power demand.

Adding to the pressure, Baker Hughes data showed a renewed uptick in Haynesville rig activity, reviving concerns over incremental supply at a time when demand visibility is weakening.

Near-term outlook: Downward to range-bound. Any recovery will depend on colder weather signals or a slowdown in drilling momentum.