MCX Gold Price Analysis Prediction forecast Today 
Gold Analysis covers:
For 17 March 2025
Analysis by Riteshkumar Sahu &
Devanshi Mehta of Kotak Securities
Gold surges amid rate cut expectations, trade uncertainty ; Oil prices steady after OPEC output rise
Comex gold futures surged for a third consecutive session, to trade above $2,955 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand amidst escalating tariff tensions and favorable U.S. inflation data. President Trump’s volatile trade policies, including increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, and retaliatory measures from China and Canada, have fueled market uncertainty. Wednesday’s cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price index bolstered expectations for a potential Fed rate cut later this year. The inflation data’s release, however, preceded the full impact of Trump’s tariff implementations. Investors are now keenly anticipating the U.S. Producer Price Index for further clues regarding the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory, as gold remains supported by the prospect of a tariff-induced economic slowdown.
WTI crude oil’s decline to $67.3/bbl reflects the combined pressure of diminished demand due to trade war uncertainties and increased supply from OPEC+ production. While easing U.S. inflation offered temporary relief, geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, limited further price gains. Demand concerns remain prevalent, driven by weak Chinese economic data and increased OPEC+ output, with Kazakhstan exceeding its quota. The IEA’s report highlighted a 40k b/d OPEC output rise in February, led by non-quota members. Simultaneously, global demand faces pressure from escalating trade tensions, potentially exacerbating a supply surplus. The IEA revised down 2024 consumption growth forecasts, projecting a 600,000 b/d surplus in 2025, further amplified by OPEC+’s potential 400,000 b/d addition. Mixed U.S. inventory data, with declining gasoline stocks and rising crude inventories, added to market uncertainty.
LME base metals edged lower, with aluminum leading the decline, down nearly 1% at $2677/tonne, after Trump backed off from imposing a 50% tariff on Canadian aluminum imports eased supply concerns. Copper also faced pressure after US Commerce Secretary Lutnick reaffirmed plans for tariffs to boost domestic production. In China, oversupply continues to weigh on copper, with treatment charges at smelters staying below zero, prompting major producer Tongling Nonferrous to cut processing rates by 10%. Despite these headwinds, copper in London hit their highest since October, supported by trade war uncertainties and potential US import levies. Meanwhile, China has urged the US to remove its metal tariffs, citing WTO multilateral trade violations.
European natural gas recovered today, climbing to €42.5/MWh, driven by revised forecasts indicating colder April temperatures and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Demand expectations have risen, crucial as Europe aims to replenish gas storage to 90% by November, currently at 36.2%. While Ukraine signaled support for a 30-day ceasefire, Russian skepticism and continued infrastructure attacks maintain market volatility. Despite diversification efforts, Europe’s energy security remains vulnerable due to its continued reliance on Russian LNG, compounded by market sensitivities to weather and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Today, investors will now turn their attention to upcoming US PPI data and jobless claims reports crucial for gauging the Fed’s interest rate trajectory.
Will Gold Go up or down?
Gold Technical Analysis by Paresh Gordhandas
MCX Gold April 2025
S 2 Rs. 86392
S1 Rs. 86617
Pivot Rs. 86746
R 1 Rs.86971
R 2 Rs. 87100
Analysis for the Week ahead by Kaynat Chainwala,
AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities:
Hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, coupled with signs of weakness in the labor market, has posed challenges for Federal Reserve policymakers and allowed gold to recover from a weekly low of $2,618.80 per ounce. The US CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, surpassing expectations of 0.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Additionally, jobless claims increased by 33,000 to 258,000, marking the highest level since early August 2023. Meanwhile, a softer Producer Price Index (PPI) reinforced expectations for rate cuts, leading to a sharp rebound in gold prices, which reached $2,679 per ounce on Friday. The US PPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 1.8% year-over-year in September, following increases of 0.2% and 1.9% in August. COMEX Gold is holding onto modest gains from last week, trading above $2,673 per ounce today. However, sharp upside potential is being limited by a stronger dollar, as markets have scaled back aggressive rate cut expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates almost a 90% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in November, a significant shift from a month ago when the odds for a 25 or 50 basis point cut were evenly split at 50%.
WTI crude oil prices closed 1.5% higher last week at $75.56 per barrel, despite volatility driven by ongoing concerns about Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran, as well as significant increases in US stockpiles and disappointment over the lack of new stimulus announcements from China. Today, WTI Crude has dropped more than 1% and is trading below $75 per barrel, weighed down by China’s finance ministry holding back from presenting concrete fiscal stimulus plans during a closely watched briefing on Saturday. While the finance minister indicated that more fiscal stimulus is forthcoming and that there will be a significant increase in debt issuance, no specific details about the size of this stimulus were provided. Oil prices are likely to remain volatile as traders monitor developments in the Israel-Iran conflict. Over the weekend, a Hezbollah drone attack killed four Israeli soldiers, while the Pentagon said it would send an advanced missile defense system and associated troops to help shield its ally. Disruptions in pipeline operations and the closure of several product terminals due to Hurricane Milton are also expected to impact supplies.
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