Commodity outlook 🕗 Last Update: 8 April 2026, 9.00 PM
by Riteshkumar Sahu (riteshkumar.sahu@kotak.com), Saait Sawant Dessai
Commodity Market Update Today
A sharp shift in geopolitical sentiment is driving commodities today. The big trigger is the two-week US-Iran ceasefire framework, which has sharply reduced immediate supply disruption fears from the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a major selloff in energy, while precious metals and select base metals are still finding support from the weaker dollar, easing war-risk narrative, and selective investment flows. Reuters and Bloomberg both reported that the ceasefire agreement is tied to a temporary reopening of Hormuz, though shipping normalisation may still take weeks and risks remain alive.
Latest Commodity Prices Snapshot
| Commodity | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 96.028 | -16.922 | -14.98% |
| Brent | 95.630 | -13.64 | -12.48% |
| Natural Gas | 2.7159 | -0.1541 | -5.37% |
| Gasoline | 3.0167 | -0.2885 | -8.73% |
| Heating Oil | 3.8963 | -0.5811 | -12.98% |
| Gold | 4751.79 | +43.72 | +0.93% |
| Silver | 75.467 | +2.53 | +3.47% |
| Copper | 5.7528 | +0.2083 | +3.76% |
| Soybeans | 1162.11 | +3.86 | +0.33% |
| Wheat | 581.23 | -16.77 | -2.80% |
| Coal | 138.50 | +0.60 | +0.44% |
| Steel | 3092.00 | +4.00 | +0.13% |
Gold Market Analysis
Gold remains firm even after the ceasefire surprise because the weaker dollar, still-elevated macro uncertainty, and ongoing ETF accumulation are cushioning downside. While geopolitical panic has cooled, the market is not yet ready to fully abandon safe-haven exposure, especially with inflation and central-bank uncertainty still in the background.
Why Gold Is Rising
- Weak US dollar is supporting bullion
- Investors are still holding defensive positions
- Ceasefire reduces panic, but does not eliminate macro risk
- ETF flows are still constructive
Gold Outlook
Gold’s price action remains bullish but selective. If the ceasefire holds and oil remains soft, gold may not see runaway upside immediately, but it is still supported structurally.
Chanakya View on Gold:
👉 Bias remains positive, but the move may become more range-bound than explosive unless fresh risk emerges.
Silver Market Analysis
Silver is outperforming gold and that is a very important signal. A sharp rally in silver usually reflects not just safe-haven demand, but also improving industrial sentiment and higher risk appetite within metals.
Why Silver Is Strong
- Weak dollar support
- Relief sentiment after ceasefire
- Strong momentum buying
- Better industrial optimism than gold
Silver Outlook
Silver currently looks stronger than gold in momentum terms. If metals remain in favour and the dollar stays weak, silver can continue to outperform.
Chanakya View on Silver:
👉 Silver remains the stronger precious metal trade for now, but volatility will stay high.
Crude Oil Market Analysis
Crude oil has seen the most violent move of the day, with WTI collapsing nearly 15% and Brent falling sharply as the market unwinds the huge war premium built into prices.
This is a classic case of fear premium being removed faster than fundamentals can adjust.
Why Crude Oil Is Falling
- US-Iran ceasefire sharply reduces immediate supply fear
- Strait of Hormuz reopening reduces disruption risk
- Traders are unwinding panic longs
- Shipping flows may gradually normalise
But Why Oil Is Still Dangerous
Even after the fall, oil is not yet safe from sharp rebounds.
Because:
- Hormuz is not fully normalised
- Shipping bottlenecks still remain
- Any ceasefire violation can trigger a violent rebound
- Physical supply chain normalisation may take time
Reuters and Bloomberg both highlighted that shipping operators remain cautious and a full return to normal shipping may still take weeks, not hours.
Chanakya View on Crude:
👉 Near-term bias is bearish, but this is still a headline-sensitive market.
👉 If ceasefire cracks, crude can rebound sharply again.
Natural Gas Market Analysis
Natural gas has also weakened sharply, largely because the broader energy complex is correcting after geopolitical stress eased. On top of that, warmer weather expectations are reducing short-term demand support.
Why Natural Gas Is Weak
- Broader energy selloff
- Lower geopolitical premium
- Softer weather demand
- Weak sentiment across energy markets
Natural Gas Outlook
Unlike crude, natural gas has a somewhat more balanced medium-term setup because the US market is still relatively insulated and export constraints limit both upside and downside extremes.
Chanakya View on Natural Gas:
👉 Near-term weak, but medium-term structure is less broken than crude.
Copper Market Analysis
Copper is showing strong resilience and this is a constructive signal for the broader industrial commodity space. A rally in copper after ceasefire suggests the market is beginning to shift from war panic to growth re-pricing.
Why Copper Is Rising
- Risk sentiment has improved
- Weaker dollar supports metals
- Lower oil prices improve cost sentiment
- Growth-sensitive assets are finding buyers again
Copper Outlook
Copper’s move looks fundamentally healthier than panic-driven commodity spikes. If the macro backdrop stabilises, copper can continue to stay supported.
Chanakya View on Copper:
👉 Copper is currently one of the cleaner bullish trades in commodities, provided risk sentiment remains stable.
Aluminium / Base Metals View
Aluminium remains supported even without a fresh breakout because the market still sees supply-side tightness and lingering logistical constraints. That means unlike crude, base metals are not purely geopolitical trades — they are also being driven by real supply-demand stress.
Chanakya View on Base Metals:
👉 Base metals remain selectively strong, especially where supply tightness still exists.
Agriculture & Bulk Commodities View
Soybeans
Soybeans are holding firm, but the move is still modest and more stable than aggressive.
Wheat
Wheat is under pressure and remains relatively weak versus the rest of the commodity basket.
Coal
Coal is stable and marginally positive, showing that the market is not yet pricing a major collapse in thermal demand.
Steel
Steel remains stable and slightly positive, suggesting industrial demand sentiment has not broken.
Chanakya View:
👉 Agri remains mixed, while industrial bulk commodities are stable-to-firm.
Sector-Wise Commodity Bias Today
| Segment | Bias | View |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bullish | Supported by weak dollar and defensive flows |
| Silver | Strong Bullish | Better momentum than gold |
| Crude Oil | Bearish | War premium unwinding |
| Natural Gas | Bearish | Energy correction + weak demand |
| Copper | Bullish | Risk sentiment + weaker dollar |
| Base Metals | Positive | Supply tightness support |
| Agriculture | Mixed | No broad trend |
| Coal / Steel | Stable | Mildly supportive |
What Traders Should Watch Next
The next move in commodities will depend on three things:
1) Ceasefire durability
If the ceasefire holds, energy can remain under pressure.
2) Strait of Hormuz shipping normalisation
If actual flows improve, crude may stay soft. If not, rebound risk rises.
3) US dollar direction
A weaker dollar can keep supporting gold, silver, and copper.
Final Commodity Market View
Today’s commodity action is a classic rotation day:
- Energy is collapsing
- Precious metals are still supported
- Industrial metals are recovering
- Agri is mixed
Chanakya Final View
Best relative strength:
- Silver
- Copper
- Gold
Weakest segment:
- Crude oil
- Natural gas
- Refined fuels
👉 Current market message is very clear:
The market is moving from war fear trade to relief trade.
But because this entire move is headline-driven, traders should remain extremely alert.
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