Commodity Insights

Bullion (Gold & Silver)

Bullion markets remain highly volatile. Gold recovered towards $4,900/oz, trimming weekly losses as weaker US labour data strengthened expectations of Fed rate cuts from June. Silver witnessed extreme intraday volatility—plunging nearly 10% before rebounding sharply to above $74, aided by short covering. Repeated margin hikes by CME signal heightened risk management, which may cap near-term upside despite supportive medium-term fundamentals like easing monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty.

Sector View: Medium-term positive, near-term volatile and range-bound.

Crude Oil

WTI crude rebounded above $64/bbl, but remains on track for its first weekly loss in nearly two months. The market is shifting focus from supply fears to US–Iran diplomatic talks in Oman. Any de-escalation could pressure prices further, while renewed tensions—especially involving the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil flows)—could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium.

Sector View: Event-driven; direction hinges on geopolitical outcomes.

Base Metals

Base metals are mixed. Aluminium and zinc edged higher, but copper remains under pressure near $12,859/ton due to rising inventories across LME, SHFE and COMEX. Weak near-term demand from China and a stronger USD have weighed on prices. However, medium-term fundamentals stay constructive, supported by China’s aggressive energy and grid infrastructure investments, which could revive demand post seasonality.

Sector View: Short-term cautious, medium-term constructive (especially copper).

Natural Gas

US natural gas prices cooled near $3.5/MMBtu, snapping a three-session rally. Although inventories remain tight, warmer weather forecasts, rebounding production, and slightly lower-than-expected storage withdrawals have eased immediate supply concerns. Strong LNG exports continue to provide structural support.

Sector View: Range-bound with a mild downward bias in the near term.