Commodity outlook covering gold, crude, base metals and natural gas
🕗 Last Update: 24 February 2026, 7.30 PM
by Riteshkumar Sahu (riteshkumar.sahu@kotak.com), Saait Sawant Dessai
Gold Outlook – Profit Booking After Sharp Rally
Gold witnessed a healthy pullback after a strong four-day rally as short-term traders booked profits near higher levels. Despite the decline, the broader bias remains structurally positive due to geopolitical uncertainty and trade-policy tensions. However, firm real yields and a resilient US dollar are capping aggressive upside, keeping prices in a consolidation band. Sustained breakout momentum may require either fresh geopolitical escalation or a decisive shift in US monetary expectations.
Silver Trend – Relative Strength Continues
Silver held steady near $88, indicating underlying strength across the precious metals complex. Stability in silver suggests that investor interest in safe-haven assets remains intact even as gold experiences near-term volatility.
WTI Crude Oil – Geopolitical Risk Premium Drives Strength
WTI crude oil extended gains above $66.5 as markets tracked developments around U.S.–Iran negotiations and rising Middle East tensions. Price action remains heavily influenced by geopolitical risk rather than supply disruption, with tanker rates and military positioning adding a premium to oil prices. Any diplomatic breakthrough could trigger a swift correction, while stalled talks may keep crude elevated.
Base Metals – China Reopening Boosts Sentiment
Copper led gains among base metals as Chinese markets reopened and expectations of relatively lower US tariffs improved sentiment. However, rising inventories in London, New York and China highlight demand absorption challenges at higher price levels. Sustainability of the rally will depend on physical demand recovery and inventory trends.
US Natural Gas – Supply Abundance Caps Upside
Natural gas prices remained under pressure below $3/MMBtu as strong production and warmer weather forecasts offset short-term demand from winter storms. Record LNG exports continue to support flows, but without sustained cold weather, rallies may face selling pressure due to ample supply conditions.
Chanakya Commodity View
Precious metals are transitioning into consolidation after a sharp rally, crude oil remains geopolitically driven, base metals are supported by policy optimism but capped by inventories, while natural gas faces structural supply headwinds — suggesting a selective, event-driven trading environment across commodities.
Bullion & Crude analysis by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities:
Gold and silver futures extended their rally today, with COMEX gold climbing to $5,198 per ounce and silver advancing to $87.68 per ounce, as renewed trade tensions and geopolitical risks boosted safe-haven demand. The move follows President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he plans to impose a 15% global tariff under Trade Act provisions, after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down his earlier emergency tariffs. A 10% tariff would take effect beginning February 24, coinciding with the halt of prior emergency duty collections. The full 15% rate may follow once formally enacted through a White House order. Bullion prices may remain supported as the shift effectively overrides recently negotiated trade arrangements and has injected fresh uncertainty into global markets.
Bullion had already been building momentum late last Friday after Trump initially pledged to impose a new global tariff after the landmark Supreme ruling, reviving trade concerns. Gold futures on COMEX posted a third consecutive weekly gain, settling above $5,130 per ounce, while silver surged more than 5% to reclaim levels above $84 per ounce. Beyond trade policy uncertainty, precious metals also drew support from rising geopolitical tensions. Markets reacted to increased speculation of a potential U.S.–Iran conflict following Trump’s remarks and reports of an expanded U.S. military presence in the region, further reinforcing demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
WTI Crude oil prices are trading below $66/bbl, down more than 1% from last week’s close, as renewed optimism over a possible Iran nuclear agreement weighed on geopolitical risk premiums. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly said there is a “good chance” of reaching a diplomatic, win-win solution. Further adding to market uncertainty, Trump announced a fresh 15% global tariff aimed at preserving protective trade measures following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his emergency levies. Oil prices may trade in a range ahead of a third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday, while concerns over the future of U.S. trade agreements cloud the outlook for global growth and fuel demand. Meanwhile, prompt spread for Brent and WTI has narrowed to 43 cents and 18 cents, respectively, from more than $1 and 60 cents last month. While the market remains in backwardation, the tighter spreads suggest easing near-term supply tightness.
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