Commodity Insights

🪙 Bullion

Spot Gold fell more than 1% from the day’s high to settle near $4,170 on Thursday, retreating from a 3-week peak as a broad risk-off sentiment followed the reopening of the US government.
Spot Silver also slipped about 4% from intraday highs to finish below $52.30.

Early gains faded as US Treasury yields moved higher, and traders scaled back expectations of an early Fed rate cut.
The reopening of the government and improving US–China trade relations reduced safe-haven demand.
Fed officials delivered mixed but mostly hawkish remarks — Hammack, Collins, and Musalem supported steady rates, Kashkari pointed to inflation near 3%, while Daly kept December policy open.

As per CME FedWatch, odds of a rate cut fell to 51% (vs. 70% a week ago).
📊 Today, spot gold is trading above $4,200, supported by a softer dollar and uncertainty over delayed US economic data.

🛢️ Crude Oil

WTI crude attempted to rebound after a sharp 4% fall in the previous session, supported by looming sanctions on Russian oil firms and a weaker US dollar.
However, gains were capped due to another large build in US crude inventories.

📉 According to the EIA, US crude stocks rose by 6.4 million barrels for the week ending Nov 7, after a 5.2-million-barrel rise the previous week.
Gasoline and distillate inventories fell by 0.9 million and 0.6 million barrels, respectively.

Today, prices have jumped to $60.6/bbl as focus shifts back to US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil (effective Nov 21).
Still, volatility may persist due to oversupply concerns, with the IEA projecting a 2026 surplus of 4.09 million bpd.

🔥 Natural Gas

NYMEX Gas Futures surged to a fresh 8-month high of $4.68/mmBtu, supported by colder weather forecasts for late November and strong LNG export flows, which limited sharper downside moves.

⚙️ Base Metals

Base metals witnessed a mixed trend on Thursday.
Copper and Aluminium inched higher, while other metals softened.
Copper briefly approached the $11,000/ton mark as risk sentiment improved after President Trump signed a short-term funding bill ending the US government shutdown.

Expectations of further Fed rate cuts amid labour market softness boosted appetite for risk assets.
However, gains later moderated due to weak Chinese data — industrial output and retail sales recorded their slowest growth in over a year.
Rising Chinese refined copper exports also capped the upside, reflecting abundant supply and stronger margins abroad.

📉 Overall, base metals traded lower as weak Chinese data pressured demand, while traders remained cautious ahead of delayed US economic releases and limited Fed policy easing prospects.