Commodity Insights

Bullion Outlook – Gold and Silver Under Pressure as Rate-Cut Bets Shift
Bullion prices witnessed a moderate retreat after stronger-than-expected US payroll data reduced expectations of early Federal Reserve policy easing. Spot gold slipped toward the $5,070 per ounce mark as resilient labour market indicators — including a sharp rise in January payrolls and a decline in unemployment — reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance. Markets have now pushed back expectations of the first rate cut to July instead of June, limiting near-term upside for non-yielding assets.

Silver remained highly volatile, briefly falling to $81.6 before rebounding above $83.8, reflecting extreme positioning and thin liquidity conditions. Despite short-term pressure, structural drivers such as ongoing central bank gold accumulation, currency debasement concerns and persistent geopolitical risks continue to provide an underlying support base. Traders will now closely monitor jobless claims data and upcoming CPI figures for further policy direction cues.

Crude Oil Outlook – Geopolitical Risk Supports Prices Amid Supply Overhang
WTI crude oil futures hovered near $65 per barrel, stabilising close to multi-month highs as geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran maintained a risk premium in energy markets. Diplomatic signals from Washington kept hopes of negotiations alive, though the possibility of escalation continues to underpin sentiment.

However, the bullish narrative remains capped by supply-side concerns. A significant 8.5-million-barrel build in US commercial crude inventories highlighted ongoing surplus pressures, while OPEC maintained its global demand outlook and non-OPEC supply forecasts unchanged. With the International Energy Agency expected to reiterate oversupply concerns, crude oil prices may struggle to extend gains unless a tangible supply disruption emerges. Structurally, ample inventories and steady output growth suggest limited upside momentum in the absence of geopolitical shocks.

Base Metals Outlook – Supply Constraints and Energy Transition Themes Offer Support
Base metals traded on a mixed trajectory, with copper and aluminium outperforming while nickel lagged. Copper climbed above $13,320 per tonne, supported by a weaker US dollar and tightening supply dynamics despite seasonal softness in Chinese demand ahead of Lunar New Year holidays. Aluminium prices also edged higher, reflecting broader positive sentiment across the industrial metals complex.

Fundamental support continues to stem from steady global manufacturing activity, expansion in AI-driven data infrastructure, and energy transition investments. At the same time, mine supply growth remains constrained by declining ore grades and operational challenges. Speculative flows, particularly from Chinese investors, have amplified recent rallies. Although near-term demand may remain subdued due to seasonal factors, medium-term fundamentals for base metals remain constructive.

Natural Gas Outlook – Storage Draws Tighten Supply Narrative
U.S. natural gas futures moved higher above $3.30/MMBtu amid choppy trading as markets positioned ahead of the EIA storage report. Expectations of a large 264 Bcf withdrawal could reduce inventories to nearly 2,199 Bcf, marking a significant shift from a surplus situation a month ago to a projected deficit approaching 150 Bcf.

Accelerating storage draws and tightening balances are strengthening the near-term demand-supply outlook. Even without major weather model changes, traders remain focused on inventory trends, which are increasingly supportive for prices in the short term.