MCX Gold Price Today Forecast
Updated for 9 September 2025
Gold & crude analysis by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Spot gold surged to all time high of $3600/oz following disappointing US jobs data which further highlighting the fragile state of the job market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 22,000 in August, well below expectations of 75,000. July’s job gains were revised up slightly to 79,000, but June’s figures were adjusted down significantly, showing a net loss of 13,000 jobs after a prior downward revision of 27,000. These changes suggest the labor market has been softer than initially reported over the summer. In addition to lackluster job creation, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highest since 2021, adding to concerns that the labor market is losing momentum, which could keep the Federal Reserve’s on track to cut interest rates this month. Gold prices extended gains to a fresh high of $3,616/oz today as markets now await the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary annual benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls, due on September 9. A significant downward revision to FY 2025 figures would suggest job creation has been overstated, potentially challenging the Fed’s current view of labor market resilience and strengthening the case for deeper rate cuts.
WTI crude prices tumbled to $61.45/bbl on Friday before closing just below $62, following reports that Saudi Arabia is pushing for OPEC+ to bring forward its next production increase, potentially restoring up to 1.66 million bpd well ahead of the originally planned late 2026 timeline. This comes after the producer group had already brought back about 2.2 million bpd of supply since April. The disappointing U.S. jobs report further weighed on demand expectations, adding to downside pressure in oil markets. Today, prices rebounded sharply to $63/bbl, supported by a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output increase and escalating geopolitical tensions. Eight OPEC+ members are now set to raise output by just 137,000 bpd in October, a sharp slowdown compared to 555,000 bpd in the last two months and 411,000 bpd in July and June. Further supporting prices, U.S. President Trump announced readiness to move into a second phase of sanctions against Russia, following Russia’s largest aerial assault to date on Ukraine.
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