Commodity Insights

Bullion – Gold & Silver

Gold (Spot / MCX Gold Feb)

Bullion witnessed a healthy pullback consolidation as dollar strength ahead of U.S. NFP capped upside, even as geopolitical risks and central-bank buying continue to provide a strong medium-term floor. Technically, gold remains in a strong uptrend, with prices holding well above key moving averages and trend supports.

• Spot Gold

  • Immediate Support: 4440–4422

  • Major Support: 4362

  • Resistance: 4500 / 4519 / 4579

• MCX Gold Feb

  • Immediate Support: 1,38,399 – 1,37,758

  • Major Support: 1,36,072

  • Resistance: 1,39,042 – 1,39,440 – 1,40,726

Technical View:
As long as prices hold above the 4440 (Spot) / 1,37,700 (MCX) zone, the bias remains buy-on-dips. A sustained move above 4500 (Spot) or 1,39,400 (MCX) could open the door for a fresh upside leg.

Silver (Spot / MCX Silver Mar)

Silver continues to outperform on a relative basis, supported by industrial demand expectations and bullish investor sentiment, despite short-term volatility.

• Spot Silver

  • Support: 76.18 / 75.08

  • Resistance: 79.75 / 80.85 / 84.41

• MCX Silver Mar

  • Support: 24,502 – 24,245

  • Resistance: 25,795 – 25,757 – 26,345

Technical View:
Trend remains firm to bullish. Any dips towards 76–75 (Spot) or 24,500 (MCX) are likely to attract buying interest. Momentum strengthens on a close above 79.75 / 25,800.

Energy – Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Crude Oil (MCX Crude Jan)

Crude prices are struggling to sustain gains as potential revival of Venezuelan supply and surplus expectations offset geopolitical risks linked to Iran and Russia-Ukraine. Structurally, crude remains range-bound with a negative bias.

• Support: 5169 / 5140 / 5048

• Resistance: 5261 / 5290 / 5382

Technical View:
Failure to hold above 5260 keeps the trend cautious. A break below 5140 may drag prices towards 5050. Upside is likely capped unless geopolitical risks escalate materially.

Natural Gas (MCX Natural Gas Jan)

Natural gas remains supported after a larger-than-expected storage draw, though ample production and mild weather forecasts limit runaway upside.

• Support: 306.24 / 302.06 / 288.53

• Resistance: 319.76 / 323.94 / 337.47

Technical View:
Short-term bias is positive but volatile. Sustaining above 313 keeps upside targets of 320–324 open. Below 302, momentum may weaken.

Base Metals – Copper, Zinc, Aluminium, Lead

Copper (MCX Copper Jan)

Copper remains structurally bullish, backed by tightening global supply, tariff-driven stock movements, and long-term electrification demand, despite profit booking near record highs.

• Support: 1263.9 / 1252.0

• Resistance: 1302.4 / 1314.3 / 1352.8

Technical View:
Trend remains buy-on-dips as long as prices hold above 1250. A sustained move above 1305 can resume the primary uptrend.

Zinc, Aluminium & Lead

• Zinc (MCX Jan): Holding firm above 305; resistance at 312–316

• Aluminium (MCX Jan): Stable structure; support at 310, resistance at 317–323

• Lead (MCX Jan): Consolidative; support near 189, resistance at 194–198

Technical View:
Base metals continue to trade with a positive undertone, supported by supply-side concerns and selective buying. Near-term consolidation is healthy within broader bullish structures.

Overall Commodity Strategy – Chanakya View

• Bullion: Buy-on-dips; trend firmly positive

• Crude Oil: Range-bound to weak; rallies likely to face selling

• Base Metals: Structural bullish bias; dips are opportunities

• Natural Gas: Volatile with upward bias; trade with tight risk management

📌 Key trigger ahead: U.S. NFP data for dollar direction and near-term volatility across commodities.