Gold continues to hold firm

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👉USD/INR Analysis

Gold & Crude Analysisby Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities:
Gold and silver retreated from session highs today after an early surge driven by dollar weakness and geopolitical optimism. Spot gold tested a one-month high of $4,870 per ounce before pulling back below $4,820, while silver touched $80.68 before slipping under $79, extending gains of 2% and 5% respectively from the prior session. The dollar’s partial recovery through the session explains the retreat from highs, with Fed officials continuing to signal that cuts remain conditional on sustained progress toward the 2% inflation target.

The moves yesterday were driven by a softening dollar, which slipped below 98 and has now largely erased all gains accumulated since the US-Iran war began on February 28. Renewed expectations of a second round of US–Iran peace talks reduced the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, while a softer-than-expected PPI reading further pressured the greenback.

From a forward-looking perspective, the outlook for bullion remains asymmetric. A meaningful diplomatic breakthrough could support the dollar and thereby constrain further upside in gold prices. Conversely, any fresh escalation would reignite inflationary pressure, reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative, and weigh on precious metals. 

Oil prices held declines on Wednesday but recovered from session lows as traders weighed optimism over a potential second round of US–Iran peace talks against a rapidly darkening demand outlook. Brent and WTI have settled into the low $90s following last week’s sharp 13% plunge in both benchmarks, which briefly dragged both below $97 per barrel before a strong Monday rebound above $100 as Islamabad-led diplomacy initially stalled.

One of the more telling developments has been the Brent–WTI spread. In early April, WTI flipped above Brent, an unusual inversion driven by heightened risk on seaborne cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, making landlocked WTI appear relatively insulated. That premium has since unwound, with Brent reasserting a modest spread over WTI this week, reflecting a partial easing of immediate disruption fears.

Yesterday, WTI plunged over 7% to close at $91.3 per barrel while Brent slipped 5% to $94.8 per barrel, with tanker flows through Hormuz continuing despite a US naval blockade. The deeper drag came from the IEA’s revised demand outlook, projecting an 80,000 bpd contraction in 2026 against a prior forecast of 640,000 bpd growth, the first annual decline since 2020, with Q2 demand expected to fall by roughly 1.5 million bpd. Supply is projected to contract by an equivalent 1.5 million bpd. Having said that, any fresh escalation at Hormuz would swiftly reintroduce the supply risk markets have only just begun to price out.