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Nifty 50 Nifty Bank Analysis for December 23, 2024
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Chanakya’s Nifty Bank & Nifty 50 Investments Analysis Stock market today live
Nifty Bank (50579):
*Trend for December 23:
Friday witnessed severe correction at Nifty bank and now on Monday, marginal bounce back is expected. After initial recovery, further fall in the index is anticipated.
*On higher side, it is expected to move up to 51389, at the opening bell
*On lower side, it is expected to decline to 50369
Nifty 50 (23587):
Friday witnessed severe correction at Nifty and now on Monday, marginal bounce back is expected. After initial recovery, further fall in the index is anticipated.
*On higher side, it is expected to move up to 23923
*On lower side, it is expected to decline to 23394
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Technical Analysis of the Market by Mr. Nagaraj Shetti,
Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities
No update for today
What is Vaishali Parekh’s prediction for Nifty 50?
(Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher)
Market Preview
The Indian stock market indices closed in the red for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, December 19. The indices crashed in intraday trading after the US Federal Reserve signalled the pace of rate cuts would likely be slower in the coming year. The Nifty 50 index closed 1.02 per cent lower at 23,951.70 points, compared to 24,198.85 points at the previous market close.
The BSE Sensex closed 1.20 per cent lower at 79,218.05 points on Thursday, compared to 80,182.20 points at the previous market close.
Vaishali Parekh, vice president of technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher, said the Nifty remained range-bound on Thursday, to end below the psychological mark of 24,000-mark. The trend is turning weak, and the bias is maintained with a very cautious approach. Parekh estimates the Nifty 50 Spot index to find support at 23,800 points and face resistance at 24,200 points. The Bank Nifty index will likely move in the 51,000 to 52,000 range.
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On the outlook for the Nifty 50 and the Bank Nifty index, Parekh said, “Nifty, after witnessing a huge gap down opening near the 23,870-zone almost to touch the important 200-period MA at 23,830 level, remained range-bound for the remaining part of the session to end below the psychological mark of 24,000, with trend turning weak and the bias maintained with a very cautious approach.”
“The 23,800-level (200 period-MA) would be the important support, below which the 23,600-zone of the channel pattern would be the next crucial level to be watched for,” said the stock market expert.
“Bank Nifty opened below the important 100-period MA in the morning session with weak bias, and has the next crucial support of the 200-period MA at 50,500 levels, which needs to be sustained, failing which the overall trend would turn bearish,” said Parekh.
Parekh said that the Nifty 50 Spot for today has support at 23,800 points, while the resistance lies at 24,200 points. The Bank Nifty index would have a daily range of 51,000 to 52,000.
Share Market today live & Nifty Analysis by Shrikant Chouhan
Head, Equity Research Kotak Securities
The Nifty-50 Index and Sensex ended down around 4.25% down in the past week. Both the mid-cap index and small-cap index lost around 2% outperforming large-caps. Global equity markets witnessed various degrees of sell-off (Brazil down 10%, Japan down 5%, S&P-500 down 4%) in the past week, in the aftermath of the US Fed policy meeting, where the US Fed cautioned on the pace of future rate cuts.
Sector-wise, all sectoral index ended red except for Realty (+.2%) and Pharma (+2.3%). Major sectoral losers for the week include, IT (-4.4%), Capital Goods (-5%), Auto (-4%), Metal (-5%), Power (-5.2%) and Oil & Gas (-3.7%). Within the Nifty, Dr Reddy (+8.5%), Cipla (+2.3%) and Apollo Hospital (+0.9%) gained the most, while Shriram Finance (-8.4%), JSW steel (-7.7%) and Tata Motors (-7.3%) lost the most. On the economy front, goods trade deficit in November widened to US$37.8 bn from US$27.1 bn in October, with exports declining 4.9% yoy, while imports increasing 27% yoy. FPI selling continued, with US$441 mn of outflows in the past five days, while DIIs bought US$1.0 bn in the same period.
In Global, in US Republican lawmakers voted against the deal to fund the government for three months and suspend the U.S. debt ceiling for two years. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump also issued a fresh trade threat to the EU. In Europe, Bank of England held policy unchanged, while Russian policymakers are set to update their monetary policy on Friday. In Asia, China held its key interest rates steady Friday, in line with expectations.
Analysis by Mr. Nandish Shah, Senior Derivative & Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities
Nifty fell for the fifth consecutive session and registered a fall of 364 points or 1.52%, to close at 23587. Nifty ended in red for all the trading sessions of the week. On weekly basis, Nifty registered a massive fall of 4.77%, highest weekly fall in percentage term since 17th June 2022. NSE cash market volumes were higher by 37% as compared to previous day aided by flows related to FTSE and Sensex rebalancing.
Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 Index continued its downward journey for the fourth day on the trot where they plunged by 2.8% and 2.2% respectively. Declining shares outnumbered the advancing shares where advance decline ratio stood at 0.36 on BSE, lowest since 13- Nov 2024.
All the sectoral Indices ended in the red. Amongst them, Nifty Reality, Nifty PSU Banks, and Nifty IT fell the most.
Nifty has also violated its 200 days SMA and EMA supports and closed on a weak wicket. Nifty is in continuation of a down trend and the only support which is visible on the chart is the swing low of 23263, made on 28th Nov 2024. 200 days SMA which is placed at 23834 is now expected to act as an intermediate resistance for the short term.
The closely watched inflation gauge – the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – is due later in the day. Forecasts are centred on a monthly rise of 0.2% for November, and any upward surprises there could lead markets to further scale back bets for U.S. policy easing next year.
Nifty Analysis by Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst – Angel One Ltd
Nifty slips for the third consecutive session; ends below 24200
Amid the ripple effects of Tuesday’s sell-off, Nifty opened Wednesday’s session on a negative note. Despite a brief initial recovery, the bears maintained control, driving prices lower throughout the first half to breach last week’s low. In the second half, the index traded within a narrow range, eventually closing with a 0.50% cut, just below 24200.
This marks the third consecutive session of losses, wiping out nearly 50% of the gains from the recent low of 23263. Traders appeared cautious ahead of the FED policy announcement, preferring to reduce positions, making the next session critical in determining the market’s direction. Momentum suggests that the psychological level of 24000, followed by 23900, which aligns with the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally, will act as key support levels on the weekly expiry day. On the upside, resistance levels are seen at regular intervals, with today’s early bounce around the 89-day EMA near 24400 marking the immediate hurdle. The broader uptrend may only resume once the index crosses 24750. With the FED policy announcement and weekly expiry on the horizon, heightened volatility is anticipated. Traders are advised to avoid excessive risks and wait for a clearer trend before making aggressive moves.
Market analysis by Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivative – Angel One
Following the FED meeting, the Gift Nifty faced significant losses, dropping over 300 points. In tandem, the benchmark index opened sharply lower, with a gap-down of more than 300 points. However, there was no additional downside during the day as prices traded within a range, eventually closing over a percent lower, just above 23950.
The bearish momentum persisted, with prices retracing more than 61.8% of the recent rebound from November’s swing lows within just four sessions. Although key support levels around the 200 DSMA near 23800 provided some relief, the lack of a strong intraday recovery highlighted the bears’ firm control. On the weekly chart, as the week nears its end, the index has already wiped out gains from the past three weeks. A sustained move below 23800 could trigger further downside, potentially revisiting the recent lows around 23200. For now, given the prevailing momentum, the near-term outlook remains bearish. Any interim bounce could be seen as an opportunity to reduce long positions. The bearish gap between 24000 and 24150 is likely to act as immediate resistance. Additionally, keeping an eye on global developments will be crucial, as recent movements have been significantly influenced by key global events
Weekly market analysis by Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities:
In the last week, the benchmark indices corrected sharply, with the Nifty ending 4.7 percent lower, while the Sensex was down by 4100 points. Among sectors, the Pharma index outperformed, rallying over 1.5 percent, whereas the Metal and Bank Nifty indices corrected sharply, shed over 5 percent. During the week, the market slipped below the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), and post-breakdown, selling pressure intensified.
Technically, the weekly charts have formed a long bearish candle, and after a long time, the Nifty closed below the 200-day SMA, which is largely negative. We believe that as long as the Nifty remains below the 200-day SMA or 23800/78300, weak sentiment is likely to continue. Below this level, the market could slip to 23400-23200/77500-77000. On the other hand, if it rises above 23800/78300, the pullback formation is likely to continue up to 24000/80000. Further upside may also occur, potentially lifting the market up to 24200/80600.
For the Bank Nifty, on the lower side, 50500 or the 200-day SMA would act as a crucial support zone. If it sustains below this level, it could slip to 50300-49800. Conversely, if it breaks above 51200, it could bounce back to 51800-52200. Short-term traders should remain cautious and selective, as there is a risk of being trapped at lower levels.
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