Indian equity markets are expected to begin Wednesday’s session on a cautious note, with GIFT Nifty indicating a muted start despite broadly positive cues from Asian markets. The key global variable currently influencing sentiment is the sharp volatility in crude oil prices, which have swung dramatically in recent days.
Earlier on Tuesday, the domestic market staged a strong recovery. The NSE Nifty 50 gained 234 points (0.97%) to close at 24,261.60, while the BSE Sensex surged 640 points (0.82%) to settle at 78,206.
However, the broader trend remains fragile as global macro uncertainties and geopolitical tensions continue to influence risk sentiment.
Reliance in Focus: Texas Refinery Deal May Lift Market Sentiment
One stock likely to remain firmly in focus today is Reliance Industries after US President Donald Trump publicly acknowledged the company as a partner in the proposed $300 billion oil refinery project in Texas. If confirmed, the project would mark one of the largest global refining investments in decades and could significantly strengthen Reliance’s international energy footprint. The development is expected to trigger positive sentiment around the Reliance counter, with traders anticipating fresh institutional interest in the stock. Given Reliance’s heavy weightage in the Nifty and Sensex, any sharp move in the stock could also improve overall market sentiment and provide support to benchmark indices during the session.
Commodity Market Update
Energy prices remain the most critical variable for global markets.
Crude oil prices, which had earlier surged to $117 per barrel amid West Asia tensions, have now corrected sharply and are trading below the psychological $90 mark.
Latest commodity prices indicate:
Crude Oil: $83.60 (+0.19%)
Brent Crude: $87.91 (+0.13%)
Natural Gas: $3.03 (+0.56%)
Gasoline: $2.66 (+1.01%)
Heating Oil: $3.35 (+0.20%)
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday after recent declines, with markets reacting to uncertainty surrounding shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit route.
Precious Metals
Safe-haven demand continues to keep precious metals elevated.
Gold: $5,197 (+0.15%)
Silver: $88.21 (-0.04%)
In India, 24-carat gold is trading near Rs 1,63,540 per 10 grams, rising around 1.76% from the previous session, reflecting persistent geopolitical risk.
Silver prices in India remain extremely strong, trading near Rs 2.76 lakh per kg, driven by speculative global demand and strong buying from Asian markets.
Base Metals
Copper: $5.88 (+0.39%)
Strength in copper continues to reflect expectations of steady industrial demand.
Asian Market Cues
Asian markets opened firmly on Wednesday, supported by softer oil prices and improved risk appetite.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 1.36%
Topix gained 1.22%
South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.52%
Kosdaq rose 1.39%
Hong Kong Hang Seng futures are trading slightly lower at 25,936 compared to the previous close of 25,959, indicating a relatively stable start for Chinese markets.
US Markets
US markets closed mixed on Tuesday as investors tracked the pullback in oil prices and continued monitoring developments related to the Iran conflict.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34 points to 47,706
S&P 500 declined 0.21% to 6,781
Nasdaq Composite edged up marginally by 0.01% to 22,697
Currency Market
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped slightly by 0.11% to 98.83, reflecting mild weakness in the greenback.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened 0.58% to close at 91.81 per dollar, supported by strong domestic institutional inflows.
FII – DII Activity
Institutional flows showed a divergence on Tuesday.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) were net sellers worth Rs 4,672.64 crore.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) provided strong support, buying Rs 6,333.26 crore worth of equities.
The strong DII buying continues to provide a cushion to the market during periods of FII outflows.
Sector Performance
Sectoral performance remained mixed in the previous session.
PSU Bank stocks were the biggest laggards, witnessing a sharp 4.2% decline in market capitalisation.
Cement stocks also traded weak, followed by automobile and plastics sector stocks.
On the positive side, sugar sector stocks led the gains, rising around 0.51%.
Nifty Technical Outlook
Technically, the Nifty remains in a fragile position despite Tuesday’s recovery.
Nifty closed at 24,261.60, well below most key moving averages, indicating that the broader short-term structure remains weak.
Trend Structure
Short-term (5 days): Bearish
Medium-term (21 days): Bullish
Long-term (63 days): Bullish
The index is currently trading significantly below the 20-day SMA (25,278) and 50-day SMA (25,505), suggesting that the market is still under selling pressure in the near term.
Momentum Indicators
RSI: 34.22 – indicating the market is approaching oversold territory
MACD: Negative (-340.81) – confirming bearish momentum
ADX: 27.44 with strong DMI minus reading, indicating trend strength remains on the downside.
The Nifty is currently trading very close to the lower Bollinger Band at 24,126, suggesting that volatility could expand.
Key Levels for Today
Immediate Support: 24,126
Major Support: 23,991
Immediate Resistance: 24,350
Major Resistance: 24,662
The pivot point for the session stands at 24,215.
Market Strategy
If the Nifty sustains above 24,215, the index may attempt a recovery toward 24,350–24,438.
However, a decisive break below 24,126 could trigger another wave of selling pressure toward 23,991 or lower.
With crude oil volatility, geopolitical tensions and global macro uncertainties still dominating sentiment, traders should remain cautious and focus on stock-specific opportunities.
