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Nifty 50 Nifty Bank Analysis for November 18, 2024
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Chanakya’s Nifty Bank & Nifty 50 Investments Analysis Stock market today live
Nifty Bank (50088):
*Trend for November 14: On Thursday, downtrend is expected to continue from the opening bell.
*On lower side, it is expected to decline to 49544
*On higher side, it is expected to move up to 50993
Nifty 50 (23559): On Thursday, profit booking and downtrend is expected from the opening bell.
*On lower side, it is expected to decline to 23421
*On higher side, it is expected to move up to 23785
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- Technical Analysis
- Calls for the Day
- Currency Analysis
Technical Analysis of the Market by Mr. Nagaraj Shetti,
Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities
After showing sharp weakness on Tuesday and Wednesday, Nifty continued its decline amidst range movement on Thursday and closed the day lower by 26 points. After opening on a slightly negative note, the market made an attempt of minor upside bounce in the early part of the session. Range bound action was seen in the mid part and minor upside recovery was seen from the day’s low of 23484 and Nifty closed on minor upside recovery note.A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with long upper and minor lower shadow. Technically, though this pattern looks like doji type candle pattern, but not a classical one. Normally such doji candle formations after a reasonable decline or near the key supports are considered as an impending reversal signals post confirmation. Nifty is now placed just below the crucial 200-day EMA at 23540.
Previously, this MA has offered significant reversals and upside rally during 26th Oct and 4th June period. Nifty slowing down the negative momentum below 200day EMA on Thursday may be a good sign, but the market needs to show more evidence to consider for potential upside reversal. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle, which is nearing next important support of intermediate ascending trend line around 23300 levels.
The underlying trend of Nifty continues to be negative. Though there are some signs of oversold nature, but still there is no confirmation of any crucial reversal pattern forming at the lows. A decisive slide below 23500 is expected to drag Nifty down to 23200-23000 levels by next week. However, a sustainable move above 23700-23800 levels could open chances of sizable upside bounce in the market.
What is Vaishali Parekh’s prediction for Nifty 50?
(Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher)
Market Preview
The Indian stock market fell for the fifth successive session on Wednesday, November 13, due to weak global trends, a rise in the dollar index, a weakening rupee and a sell-off from foreign investors. The Nifty 50 index closed 1.36 per cent lower at 23,559.05 points, compared to 23,883.45 points at the previous market close.
The BSE Sensex closed 1.25 per cent lower at 77,690.95 points after Wednesday’s trading session, compared to 78,675.18 points at the previous market close.
Vaishali Parekh, vice president of technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher, said the Nifty has witnessed a decent correction of over 10 per cent from the peak of 26,277, and now has touched 23,545. A further breach below will weaken the overall bias. Parekh estimates the Nifty 50 Spot index to find support at 23,300 points and face resistance at 23,800 points. The Bank Nifty index will likely move in the 49,500 to 50,700 range today.
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On the outlook for the Nifty 50 and the Bank Nifty index, Parekh said, “Nifty ended on the losing side by more than 300 points and has witnessed a decent correction of more than 10% from the peak of 26,277, and now it has touched 23,545, which is the level where the significant 200-DMA lies.”
“A further breach below 200-DMA shall weaken the overall bias, with the next major support positioned near 23,000–22,800 levels,” said the stock market expert.
“Bank Nifty tanking heavily indicated a bearish candle formation on the daily chart to make a low of 49,900 near the 200-period MA. On the downside, the next major support lies at 200-DMA level of 49,700 , which needs to be sustained to maintain the overall trend intact,” said Parekh.
Parekh said that the Nifty 50 Spot for today has support at 23,300 points, while the resistance lies at 23,800 points. The Bank Nifty index would have a daily range of 49,500 to 50,700.
Share Market today live & Nifty Analysis by Shrikant Chouhan
Head, Equity Research Kotak Securities
The Nifty-50 Index and Sensex were flat to marginally negative in the past week, while the mid-cap index lost around 0.45% and small-cap index lost 1.3% underperforming large-caps. Indian Markets underperformed most global markets as markets grappled with slowing macro and weak micro conditions. Meanwhile, the Q2FY25 earnings season continued to remain weak, with more misses than hits observed. Sector-wise, Nifty IT was the main performing index with gains of 3.6% during the week. While most other sectoral index ended in red. FMCG (-1.7%), Metal (-1.6%), Oil&Gas (-1.4%), realty (-4.1%) and power (-2.5%) lost the most. Within the Nifty, M&M (+5.4%), Apollo Hospital (+5.2%) and Tech Mahindra (+4.9%) gained the most, while Trent (-11.7%), Coal India (-6.7%) and Asian Paints (-5.8%) lost the most. FPI selling continued, with US$2 bn of outflows in the past five days, while DIIs bought US$1.7 bn in the same period.
Global market sentiment saw sharp volatility in the aftermath of Republicans winning all three branches of the US government, resulting in rising US bond yields and the dollar, as well as the US equity markets beating most EMs. Treasury yields had tumbled on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.
Analysis by Mr Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities
Nifty 50 ended lower for the sixth session in a row on Nov 14 and recorded the worst declining streak since Oct 7. At close, Nifty was down 0.11% or 26.4 points at 23532.7. Cash market volumes on the NSE were close to 6-month lows. Broad market indices ended in the positive even as the advance decline ratio crossed 1:1. Realty, Auto (better than expected results), Telecom and Consumer discretionary stocks rose the most while Oil & Gas and FMCG (disappointing outlook due to higher costs and muted spending) fell the most.
Shares fell in Asia on Thursday after a dull finish on Wall Street following a report showing an uptick last month in inflation in the U.S. A stronger dollar tends to put strain on other economies. European stocks were slightly higher on Thursday, as investors awaited the region’s third-quarter GDP data. Rise in food and fuel prices took wholesale inflation in India, calculated through Wholesale Price Index, to 2.36%. On sequential basis, WPI inflation, increased 0.97%, with food index again contributing the most with a rise of 3.02%. Wholesale food prices increased 11.59% during October, compared to 9.47% in September. India’s trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, stood at $27.14 billion in October from $20.78 billion in the preceding month.
This figure was higher than the range of estimates from 22 economists tracked by Bloomberg, which varied from a deficit of $25.5 billion to $20 billion. The merchandise exports in October rose by 17.25% from the year-ago period to $39.2 billion, while imports increased by 3.9% to reach $66.34 billion. In the preceding month, merchandise exports totalled $34.58 billion, while imports amounted to $55.36 billion. While goods exports were up 13.4 percent during the month, imports grew at a faster clip at nearly 20 percent sequentially. Nifty once again could not sustain intra day gains on Nov 14, but at the same time did not close sharply lower.
Nifty kept clinging around its 200 DEMA (23540) for the past two days. Nifty ended lower for second week in a row falling 2.55% and fell for 6 out of the past 7 weeks as earnings from India Inc. continued to weigh on investors’ sentiment at a time when increase in safe–haven assets like the dollar index, and US treasury yields weighed on risk assets like emerging markets’ equities.Nifty could stay in the 23338-24099 band in the coming week with higher chance of a bounce beginning soon.
Weekly market wrap by Amol Athawale, VP-Technical Research, Kotak Securities:
In this truncated week, the benchmark indices witnessed a sharp correction, the Nifty ends 2.45 percent lower while the Sensex was down nearly 2000 points. Among Sectors, almost all the major sectoral indices registered profit booking at higher levels but Metal index lost the most, shed over 5percent. During the week, market slipped below 24000/79000 and post breakdown the selling pressure intensified. Technically, on weekly charts, it has formed long bearish candle and on daily charts, it is holding lower top formation, which is largely negative. We are of the view that, the current market texture is weak but oversold, for the positional traders now, 200 day SMA or 23500/77400 (Simple Moving Average) would act as a sacrosanct support zone. Above the same, we could expect one quick technical pullback rally. On the higher side, the market could bounce back till 23800-24000/78500-79000. However, dismissal of 23500/77400 could trigger further weakness. Below which, it could slip till 23300-23200/77000-76600.
For Bank Nifty traders also 200 day SMA or 49750 would be the key support zone. if it sustain above the same, then it could move up till 50900-51200. However, below 49750 or 200 day SMA the sentiment could change. Below which it could slip till 49300-49000. Short-term traders should remain cautious and be very selective as there is a risk to get trapped at lower levels.
Market Views by Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives, Angel One Ltd
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Quote on market by Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical Analyst, Angel One.
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