Gold Price Forecast for 6 August 2025
Gold & crude analysis by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities
Comex December gold futures rose 0.8% to a one-week high of $3,439.50 per ounce, buoyed by a weakening U.S. dollar and soft U.S. economic data. Disappointing US payroll numbers and a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing report have significantly increased expectations for a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds surging to 94%, up from just 40% previously. Political developments added to market volatility. President Trump dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following the weak jobs report. In a further escalation of geopolitical tensions, Trump ordered the deployment of nuclear submarines near Russia in response to provocative remarks by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Today, gold is holding steady near $3,430 per ounce as markets await the release of the ISM Services PMI and the latest U.S. trade balance data. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joined Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in acknowledging signs of labor market softness and suggesting that the time for interest rate cuts may be nearing.
WTI crude oil extended its losses for a third consecutive session on Monday, falling to a one-week low of $65.50 per barrel, following OPEC+’s decision to proceed with another significant production increase. The producer group announced a 547,000 barrels-per-day hike for September, citing a “healthy global economy” and “low inventory levels”, though it is also seen as a strategy to regain market share amid uncertainty around Russian supply disruptions. Meanwhile, demand signals remain weak. Asian crude imports dropped to 25.0 million bpd in July, the lowest monthly total since July 2024, while U.S. gasoline demand averaged just 9.06 million bpd in May, the lowest seasonal level since 2020. Today, WTI crude held above $66 per barrel, as the threat of supply disruptions from Russia looms large ahead of President Trump’s August 8 deadline for a truce with Ukraine. Trump also warned he would “substantially raise tariffs” on Indian exports in response to India’s continued import and resale of Russian crude oil.
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