Nifty 50, Nifty Bank Investments Analysis for October 3, 2023
Chanakya’s Nifty Bank & Nifty 50 Investments Analysis!
Nifty Bank (44585):
*Major Trend: Bullish
*Trend for 3 October September: Bank Nifty is expected to open on Positive note and then correction will set in once again.
*On higher side, it is expected to move up to 44778
*On lower side, expected to decline to 44368
Nifty 50 (19638):
*Major Trend: Bullish
*Trend for 3 October: Nifty is expected to show positive opening and then correction will set in once again.
*On higher side, it is expected to move up to 19726
*On lower side, expected to decline to 19550
Market outlook for the week by Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd
“Both Nifty and Sensex were flat in the past week. BSE Midcap Index gained around 0.9% while BSE SmallCap Index gained 1.97%. Macro sentiments remained volatile as frailties in European and US amid rising crude oil prices and US bond yields. Crude surged 15% in the past month and is trading around US$97.8/bbl, whereas the US 10-y treasury yield rose 37 points in the past month to 4.57%. Indian equity markets remained concerned about slowdown, higher interest rates and valuation. Major sectors were flat on a week-on week basis with Nifty Finance, Nifty Pharma, Energy, Reality and Metals gaining the most. While key sectors that lost were Nifty IT, FMCG, Autos and Media. Within the Nifty Index, Bajaj Finance (+4.4%), Coal India (+4.2%) and L&T (+4.1%) gained the most, while Tech Mahindra (-5.9%), LTI Mindtree (-4.03%) and Infosys (-3.9%) lost the most.
FPIs were net sellers, while DIIs were net buyers in the same period. On the economy front, JPMorgan announced that it will include Indian government bonds in its emerging market debt index. 1QFY24 CAD widened to US$9.2 bn (1.1% of GDP) compared to US$1.4 bn in Q4FY23. In International news, Yields in the U.S. Treasurys pulled back slightly.
At 4.589%, the 10-year yield’s still the highest it’s been in decades. Likewise, oil prices retreated, giving investors and the broader economy a slight reprieve. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 2.1% to settle at $91.71 while Brent dropped 1.21% to $95.38. In Europe, the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank held interest rates steady this month, while the European Central Bank opted for a “dovish hike” and Sweden and Norway’s central banks indicated just one more increase may be ahead. While in Asia, China’s retail spending, property prices and loan growth were all weaker in September than the month before, according to the China Beige Book survey released Friday.”
Market outlook by Hemant Kanawala, Senior EVP & Head-Equity, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company
“India’s inclusion in the JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) sets stage for higher foreign flows into Indian bonds across sovereign and sub-sovereign issuances as well as good quality private corporate paper. The shadow following of the JP Morgan EM Bond Index would mean much higher demand for India’s debt paper beyond the obvious gains of USD 23 billion through index inclusion. We see this move as a big positive as it may allow diversification of the source of funding and add more GSEC buyers, thereby improving the supply-demand dynamics and indirectly lower the cost of capital in the medium term. The lower cost of capital will support businesses in their growth and also improve valuations over time. We remain constructive on equity markets and suggest adding to equity exposure on any significant correction.”
Currency quote by Anindya Banerjee, VP – Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities Ltd
“USDINR spot closed 15 paise lower at 83.3, thanks to quarter end selling from exporters and also some corporate related inflows. Global cues were positive for Rupee, as the US Dollar Index came under selling pressure due to profit taking and cool off in the US Treasury bond yields. Over the next week we expect a range of 82.70 and 83.30 on spot.”
European Share markets Today (on 29 September)
European stocks were higher Friday, but optimism in recent sessions rounded off a weak month and the worst quarter for a year.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally closed up 0.5% on the prior session, with most sectors finishing in positive territory as tech and household goods led the pack.
The index ended Wednesday at a six-month low and has declined 2.1% this month, according to LSEG data, following a 2.8% fall in August. Despite making gains in July, that still takes the benchmark Stoxx to a 2.9% loss for the quarter, its worst performance for a year.
Investors on Friday analyzed euro zone inflation, which fell to its lowest level since October 2021. It tumbled to 4.3% for the month of September, according to flash data.
The announcement is in line with recent country-specific data, with preliminary inflation figures from Germany showing inflation slowed more than expected Thursday. Harmonized data for Europe’s biggest economy showed a 4.3% increase in consumer prices since September 2022 — the lowest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. Share markets Today/on Friday
Dow sheds more than 100 points Friday
The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated on Friday as investors followed the latest news about a potential government shutdown and ended what has been a tough month for stocks..…For Dow Jones Nasdaq & FII data coverage in Depth: Click
Asian Share markets Today/on Friday Morning:Bank Nifty
Asia markets rebound, mirroring moves on Wall Street;
Asia-Pacific markets largely climbed in the final trading day of the week, mirroring moves on Wall Street.
This comes as traders assess to key economic data out of Japan, including the September inflation rate for Tokyo. The capital’s data is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends.
Tokyo’s consumer price index rose 2.8% in September from a year ago, softening from the 2.9% gain in August. The core inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food, came in at 2.5%, lower than the 2.6% expected by a Reuters poll.
Japan also saw unemployment, industrial output and retail sales data for August.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.1% in early trade, while the Topix continued to extend losses and slid 0.2%.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.31%, rebounding after a three day losing streak.
Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 17,554, also pointing to a stronger start compared to the HSI’s close of 17,373.03.
South Korean and mainland Chinese markets are closed for a holiday.
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Nifty bank, Nifty 50 Investments analysis by Chanakya: This Market Analysis, Nifty 50 & Nifty Bank Calls, Tips are based on our Technical Analysis & fundamental Analysis. Our Nifty 50 & Nifty Bank Calls is being updated every day regularly by 8 in the morning.