May 20, 2025
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Nifty Technical Analysis from Samco Securities for 21 May 2025
Analyst: Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Bears Take the Lead as Nifty Slides; Nifty Bank slips below Support level
Nifty ended the session at 24,683.90, down 1.05%. The index formed a strong bearish candle on the daily chart, extending the bearish momentum that was observed in the previous two sessions. Nifty faced resistance near the upper Bollinger Band in the daily chart and may now move toward the middle Bollinger Band, which is placed around 24,500. The daily RSI shows a downward skew and is currently positioned just below the 60 mark.
On connecting the recent swing low and swing high, Nifty is now hovering near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 24,665, with the immediate support at the 50% retracement level of 24,500. A breach below this level may weaken the ongoing trend further.
India VIX stands at 17.39, and a surge above 18 could indicate rising volatility, potentially leading to larger swings in the coming sessions. Until a strong base is formed, it may be premature to re-enter the uptrend. Hence, a cautious approach is warranted for now.
Nifty Bank settled at 54,877.35, ending the session with a loss of 0.98%. The index formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, slipping below the 9- and 20-EMAs, signaling a weakening short-term trend. However, the index continues to hold above the 50- and 100-EMAs, indicating that the broader trend remains supportive. The daily RSI has turned slightly skewed to the downside, though it hovers near the 56 mark, suggesting a pause in momentum rather than a complete breakdown.
Nifty Bank has breached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 54,880. The next crucial support lies near the 61.8% retracement level, around 54,300. On the upside, resistance is expected near 55,400, which aligns with the hourly Supertrend indicator. Hence, the near-term bias may remain subdued unless the index reclaims 55,400 on a closing basis.
