July 30, 2025
admin
Nifty & Nifty Bank Technical Analysis by Samco Securities for 31 July 2025
by Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities
Nifty-Bank stuck below resistance in volatile setup, Ahead of Expiry & FOMC Meet, Pressure builds Up
Nifty Bank index exhibited a muted tone ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry, yet managed to hold above the psychological 56,000 mark, reflecting that buyers are still defending key levels. Despite the lack of strong momentum, the index closed above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50-DEMA), currently near 56,100, indicating that bulls are attempting to maintain control. On Wednesday, the index ended slightly in the red, shedding 71.30 points to close at 56,150.70.
The recent low formed by a reversal candle now becomes a crucial short-term support and must be protected to sustain any bullish structure. The index continues to hover above its critical demand zone of 55,800–56,000, a region aligned with the 50-DEMA, hinting at potential base-building activity. However, the upward journey remains constrained below the resistance band of 56,600–56,700 — a heavy supply zone that also aligns with a cluster of short-term moving averages such as the 10-DEMA and 20-DEMA placed between 56,500 and 56,600. As long as these key resistances remain un-breached, any attempt at a sustained upside could encounter selling pressure from higher levels.
The marginal loss incurred in today’s trading underlines the ongoing consolidation, with price action getting squeezed into a defined range. A directional breakout or breakdown from this band will be required to establish clarity on the next leg of the trend. Until then, the broader trend remains sideways and uncertain, especially with two major triggers on the horizon — the FOMC policy decision and the monthly expiry — both likely to induce elevated volatility. Nifty remains trapped within a broader trading corridor, and a decisive break down below the 55,700 level could pave the way for fresh downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued around the 40 mark, suggesting a lack of robust bullish strength and ongoing caution among participants.
Derivatives Snapshot:
The sentiment in the Futures & Options (F&O) segment remains broadly bearish. Aggressive call writing at the 57,000 strike, where open interest has jumped to 25.28 lakh contracts, reinforces the zone as a formidable barrier. On the other hand, the 56,000 strike holds the highest put open interest at 15.80 lakh contracts, providing immediate support. Notably, increased put writing at lower strikes reflects a gradual strengthening of support zones, while sustained call positions at higher levels have established a well-defined trading range. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has edged down from 0.60 to 0.59, indicating that while selective buying interest exists at lower levels, persistent call writing is acting as a ceiling for any significant upside move.
Market Sentiment & Outlook:
With the dual overhang of the FOMC policy announcement and monthly expiry, the Nifty Bank index has entered a phase of low conviction and range-bound movement. Although a bullish reversal candle has appeared on the chart, a follow-through is still awaited to validate a short-term turnaround. The 55,800–55,700 band will remain a key support region in the near term. A breakout above the 56,700 resistance zone is essential to establish a more confident uptrend. Until then, the index’s inability to surpass the key moving average confluence around 56,500 will likely invite fresh selling at higher levels. Unless the Nifty Bank decisively moves and sustains above 56,700, the broader stance is expected to remain cautious, with market participants preferring to sell on rallies rather than betting on a sustained up-move. Considering the high-impact events ahead, the index is likely to see volatile swings in both directions. In such an environment, traders are advised to adopt disciplined, risk-managed strategies and stay light on aggressive directional bets.
- Market Analysis by Nagaraj Shetti
- Stock Market today by Vaishali Parekh
- Analysis by Kotak Securities
- Market Analysis by HDFC Securities
- Technical Analysis by Kotak Securities
- Technical Analysis by Samco Securities
- Reliance, Target & Stoploss
- Gold Analysis
- FII buy-Sell
- Technical Analysis
- Calls for the Day
- Currency Analysis
Quicklinks
Nifty & Nifty Bank Technical Analysis from Samco Securities
