Near term outlook remains weak… – Samco

Nifty Outlook: Below VWAP, With Resistance at 22,500–22,600

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

Nifty Today: What Is the Market Outlook?

Nifty’s near-term outlook remains weak and volatile, with support at 22,300 and 22,180, and resistance at 22,500–22,600. A sustained recovery above VWAP and the 9-day EMA is needed to improve momentum.

Nifty closed at 22,363.35, down 0.70%, forming a bearish candle as persistent selling pushed it below VWAP and the 9-day EMA. The index remains in the lower half of the Donchian Channel, whose lower band stands at 22,180.

Nifty Technical Indicators and Volatility

The RSI eased to 34 and has struggled to cross 40 since September 23, 2026, indicating subdued momentum.

India VIX rose 5.98% to 15.24, signalling increased market nervousness and the potential for wider price swings.

Nifty Option Chain: Call Writing Builds Resistance

Fresh Call writing concentrated between 22,400 and 22,600, with the largest addition at 22,600, reinforcing overhead resistance.

Put unwinding at 22,500 suggests weakening support at that strike. The Put-Call Ratio of 0.67 reflects Call-side dominance.

Bank Nifty Outlook: Sideways to Weak Below 55,100

Bank Nifty closed at 54,918.00, down 0.61%, forming a bearish candle and falling below its VWAP at 55,100.

The index remains within last week’s 54,370–55,420 range, while its RSI declined to 42, indicating weakening momentum. Both PSU and private-sector banking indices contributed to the decline. USDINR settled at 95.76.

Bank Nifty Option Chain and Key Levels

Fresh Call writing concentrated at 55,500, which also holds the highest total Call open interest in the supplied chain. This makes it a significant overhead resistance.

On the downside, 54,500 carries a notable Put base. The Put-Call Ratio stands at 0.90.

What Should Traders Watch Next?

Nifty: Holding 22,300 is important to stabilise the immediate decline. A break below it brings 22,180 into focus. Recovery requires reclaiming VWAP and the 9-day EMA, with 22,500–22,600 the main resistance zone.

Bank Nifty: The bias remains sideways to weak below 55,100. Watch 54,700–54,500 for support and 55,500 as the stronger upside hurdle. Sustained trading above VWAP and the referenced SMA would improve the technical picture.