Nifty Bank Breaks Falling Trendline Resistance – Samco

Nifty Range-Bound Below 200-DEMA; Bank Nifty Tests 58,250

Indian benchmark indices delivered a mixed closing session. Nifty remained under pressure and continued consolidating near 24,000, while Bank Nifty staged a sharp recovery led primarily by private-sector banks.

The immediate market outlook is straightforward: Nifty must reclaim 24,300–24,365 to revive bullish momentum, whereas Bank Nifty needs sustained acceptance above 58,250–58,300 to extend its recovery.

Nifty Today: Consolidation Continues Near 24,000

Nifty closed at 24,080.40, losing 95.25 points or 0.39%. The index briefly slipped below 24,000 amid volatility associated with MSCI rebalancing but recovered before the closing bell.

Despite this intraday rebound, Nifty remains confined within the broader 24,000–24,300 range. The index ended the month 1.24% lower, reflecting continued consolidation following its recent corrective move.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, noted that the index continues to lack directional momentum. Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, highlighted that Nifty tested the rising trendline drawn from the June low, making the current support area technically significant.

Why Is Nifty Struggling to Recover?

The principal hurdle is the 200-day exponential moving average near 24,365. Nifty has repeatedly failed to sustain recoveries near higher levels, indicating persistent supply and profit-booking.

The index is also trading below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, although it remains above the 100-day SMA. This produces a mixed technical structure: the broader trend has not broken decisively, but short-term momentum remains weak.

Nifty formed a bearish daily candle, reinforcing the need for confirmation before traders assume that the correction has ended.

What Do Nifty’s Momentum Indicators Show?

The Relative Strength Index is placed around 43.70–44, below both its signal average and the neutral level of 50. This indicates that momentum remains tilted towards sellers.

A break below the daily Supertrend and the nearby rising trendline could deepen the correction. Conversely, a move above the short-term moving-average cluster would be an early sign that buyers are regaining control.

Nifty Option Chain Analysis

The derivatives setup reflects a range-bound market with a mildly defensive bias:

• Total Call open interest: approximately 19.89 crore contracts
• Total Put open interest: approximately 16.10 crore contracts
• Put-Call Ratio: 0.81
• India VIX: up 4.78% at 11.19

Higher Call open interest indicates continued Call writing and supply at upper strikes. The 24,000 strike has a strong Put base, establishing it as the immediate support. On the upside, substantial Call open interest between 24,300 and 24,500 creates a broad resistance zone.

The rise in India VIX suggests increased hedging activity, although overall volatility remains relatively contained.

Nifty Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate support: 24,000
Major support zone: 23,900–23,850
Immediate resistance: 24,200
Breakout confirmation zone: 24,300–24,365
Higher resistance: 24,500

A decisive fall below 24,000 could pull the index towards 23,900 and 23,850. For a sustainable recovery, Nifty must first reclaim 24,300 and then close above its 200-DEMA near 24,365.

Nifty Outlook: What Should Traders Expect?

Until Nifty breaks out of the 24,000–24,365 zone, range-bound movement and stock-specific opportunities are likely to dominate.

Traders may avoid aggressive directional positions near the middle of the range. A confirmed close above 24,365 would improve the bullish outlook, while a decisive break below 23,900 could strengthen bearish momentum.

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